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2007 Preview: NFC East
Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 31, 2007
The NFC East remains pro football glamour division: four storied, and hated, rivals from big media markets, three of them within easy driving distance, with marquee players and coaches and plenty of history and tradition.
The problem these days is that the division just doesn't live up to the hype. The Eagles clearly dominate the division, and remain the preeminent franchise in the otherwise docile bitch-boy that is the NFC. But, famously, Philly hasn't tasted an NFL title since the Chuck Bednarik Era.
The other three teams in the division all claim multiple Lombardi Trophies, but the last was more than a decade ago. In recent years, the Giants have been classic underachievers, the Redskins have tossed away their future as they fumble to relive the glory of the Joe Gibbs years, and the Cowboys are the Ashlee Simpson of the sports world: bigger in the tabloids than they are on the field of performance.
Still, this is what passes for a power division in the crippled NFC: it sent three teams to the playoffs last year, despite the fact that no team won more than 10 games.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
(last year's record: 10-6; 2-2 vs. Quality Opponents; lost to New Orleans in NFC divisional round)
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
2 |
6 |
11 |
3 |
15 |
t15 |
26 |
9 |
Major additions:
WR Kevin Curtis (St. Louis)
DT Ian Scott (Chicago)
DT Montae Raegor (Indianapolis)
LB Takeo Spikes (acquired from Buffalo)
Major subtractions:
QB Jeff Garcia (Tampa Bay)
WR Donte' Stallworth (New England)
DT Darwin Walker (traded to Buffalo)
LB Shawn Barber (Houston)
CB Rod Hood (Arizona)
S Michael Lewis (San Francisco)
DE Jerome McDougle (out for season)
RB Ryan Moats (out for season)
Draft picks:
2 (36) Kevin Kolb, qb, Houston
2 (57) Victor Abiamiri, de, Notre Dame
3 (87) Stewart Bradley, lb, Nebraska
3 (90) Tony Hunt, rb, Penn St.
5 (159) C.J. Gaddis, db, Clemson
5 (162) Brent Celek, te, Cincinnati
6 (201) Rashad Barksdale, db, Albany, N.Y.
7 (236) Nate Ilaoa, rb, Hawaii
PHILADELPHIA
SUCKS BECAUSE:
Eagles fans don’t have faith in Donovan McNabb. The mere fact that some Eagle fans thought Jeff Garcia was a better QB than McNabb is enough to make us want to boycott Philly cheesesteak (don’t worry, it’ll pass). Garcia was six years older and half as successful as McNabb – and oh, by the way, he was also hurt in 2005, when he was sucked down by the morass that is the Detroit Lions. Injuries are an unavoidable part of the NFL, and suffering them in back-to-back seasons doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll occur in a third. With normal luck in 2006, McNabb will avoid major injury – and put up his consistently excellent numbers. Projected to 16 games in 2006, McNabb would have thrown 29 TDs to 9 INTs, with more than 300 yards and four more TDs on the ground. The Eagles were cool to McNabb from the beginning and have never really warmed to him. But, look around folks. There aren't many quarterbacks more productive when healthy.
PHILADELPHIA
RULES BECAUSE:
Head coach Andy Reid and D coordinator Jim Johnson are a dynamic duo. This will be their ninth year together, the longest serving such duo in the NFL. In the previous eight seasons they’ve combined for an 80-48 (.625) record. The offense has been in the top 12 in scoring six of the eight years, the defense five times. Reid is a fat guy with a stache, Johnson is an old guy with crazy eyes and balls of steel. NFL arenas need more combos like Reid-Johnson. They also need more combos like Jack Daniel's and Coke, but that's a story for another day.
EAGLE SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
Head trainer Rick Burkholder. Philly has an All-Star lineup … from 2004 or so. Tackles Jon Runyan and William Thomas,
DE
Jevon Kearse, LB Takeo Spikes, S Brian Dawkins, McNabb – all great players with Pro Bowl jerseys on the wall. And all of them over 30. If the Eagles can keep these guys on the field for all but a handful of games, this team is a playoff lock.
The Eagles were a quality 10-6 team in 2006 that had an excellent offseason (B+ in the Fillability Index). McNabb has proven he’s one of the five best QBs in the league, and has had his share of fluky injuries. They’re old on defense, but a healthy Kearse and Spikes will keep pressure off a secondary that’s always good under Jim Johnson (6th in Defensive Passer Rating in 2006). They have proven coaching leadership and smart ownership that's consistently put a top product on the field this decade. An easy schedule will help, too. Healthy, the Eagles could take the NFC’s top seed. Injured, they’ll still be in the mix.
COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 11-5, NFC East champions
DALLAS COWBOYS
(last year's record: 9-7; 1-3 vs. Quality Opponents; lost to Seattle in NFC wild-card round)
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
5 |
4 |
13 |
5 |
13 |
20 |
10 |
24 |
Major additions:
QB Brad Johnson (Minnesota)
T Leonard Davis (Arizona)  S Ken Hamlin (Seattle)
Major subtractions:
QB Drew Bledsoe (retired)
T Jason Fabini (Washington)
C Al Johnson (Arizona)
DE Kenyon Coleman (NY Jets)
LB Ryan Fowler (Tennessee)
Draft picks:
1 (26) Anthony Spencer, lb, Purdue
3 (67) James Marten, ot, Boston College
4 (103) Isaiah Stanback, qb, Washington
4 (122) Doug Free, ot, Northern Illinois
6 (178) Nick Folk, k, Arizona
6 (195) Deon Anderson, rb, Connecticut
7 (212) Courtney Brown, db, Cal Poly
7 (237) Alan Ball, db, Illinois
Summer injuries:
WR Terry Glenn (sore knee, day-to-day)
CB Terence Newman (injured heel, day-to-day)
DALLAS
SUCKS BECAUSE:
The Cowboys still get publicity like it’s 1995. Here’s the Cold, Hard Football Facts lowdown on the post-glory era in
Dallas
: it sucks. The Cowboys have gone 83-93 since winning the last of three Super Bowls with the triplets, yet they’re constantly in the NFL spotlight. The Cowboys have lost five straight postseason games, and their last victory came back in the 1996 wildcard round. That's more than a decade ago, and that’s a mighty long time in the NFL. To put it in terms you can understand, the last time
Dallas
won a playoff game, the Spice Girls were just coming out and Amobi Okoye was nine years old. Now Okoye is a 317-pound millionaire NFL lineman and the Spice Girls are horrifically old and seeking attention. Gross.
DALLAS
RULES BECAUSE:
The Cowboys throw fantasy football geeks into fits of rage.
Dallas
was fourth in the league in scoring in 2006, so you’d expect them to be favorites with the fantasy set. But it’s the opposite. Their starting running back, Julius Jones ran for 1,000 yards, but backup Marion Barber had 16 touchdowns to Jones’ four. Yet there were games where Barber hardly played at all. Their receivers, Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens, are constantly “day-to-day,” and as streaky as generic window cleaner. In their combined 22 years in the league, Glenn and Owens played a total of eight full 16-game seasons. And QB Tony Romo played great when no fantasy GM would start him, then threw a pedestrian 6 TDs (and 8 INTs) in his last five games when he was actually in lineups. But anything that adds stress to the already miserable lives of the fantasy hack is fine with us.
COWBOY SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT
:
Safety Roy Williams. The Dallas secondary is filled with first-round draft picks. Williams, a perennial Pro Bowler, is most notable among them. But if he's really as his peers think, why does
Dallas
’ secondary suck so bad? Last year, the Cowboys were 28th in passings yards per attempt allowed, and 20th in Defensive Passer Rating. Williams did force seven turnovers (5 INT, 2 FR), but managed just 53 tackles. He also is universally regarded as the most overrated defensive player in the league by scouts. If he can get back to 2003 form, when he was all over the field and keyed the best pass D in the league,
Dallas
could be special. If not, they’re looking more vanilla than the crowd at a Utah-BYU game.
The Cowboys were a decent squad that played great against bad teams and terribly against good ones. They were 1-3 against Quality Opponents and outscored by 12 PPG in quality matchups, ranking them 26th in that category. Only the kindness of the inept NFC got them a postseason bid. The Cowboys’ strength is their passing game, which is keyed by a one-year wonder (Romo), a 34-year-old receiver (Owens) and a 33-year-old receiver (Glenn). If all three repeat their rampant success of 2006, the Cowboys might be fine. That’s a big if, though, especially with Wade “Third Chance” Phillips as head coach. He's never been a great head coach (48-39, .552) with four different teams. Plus, he brings to Dallas the curse of Doug Flutie: Phillips has never won a playoff game since benching Flutie before the 1999 postseason. We don't believe in voodoo or anything, but we do believe in the omnipotent power of the Flutie Curse. Sorry, Dallas.
COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 9-7, 2nd in NFC East
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2006 rankings
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
13 |
20 |
4 |
21 |
31 |
27 |
27 |
23 |
Major additions:
T Jason Fabini (Dallas)
LB London Fletcher (Buffalo)
CB Fred Smoot (Minnesota)
CB David Macklin (Arizona)
S Omar Stoutmire (New Orleans)
Major subtractions:
RB T.J. Duckett (Detroit)
G Derrick Dockery (Buffalo)
CB Kenny Wright (Cleveland)
S Mike Rumph (St. Louis)
Draft picks:
1 (6) LaRon Landry, s, LSU
5 (143) Dallas Sartz, lb, Southern Cal
6 (179) H.B. Blades, lb, Pittsburgh
6 (205) Jordan Palmer, qb, UTEP
7 (216) Tyler Ecker, te, Michigan
WASHINGTON
SUCKS BECAUSE:
The front office trades away all of their draft picks. Over a five-year span, the average team will have something like 40 draft picks – seven per year + various league-issued bonus picks for free agent losses. The Redskins, since 2003, have picked EIGHTEEN players (that's 18 for those of you keeping score at home). They’ve traded away more than half of their picks, and that's resulted in three double-digit-loss seasons in the last four. Note to
Washington
: all great teams are built through the draft.
WASHINGTON
RULES BECAUSE:
There’s a Hall of Fame coach on the sidelines. Want to know how many men have been head coaches in the NFL after getting their bronze Hall bust? Three: George Halas, Paul Brown and Joe Gibbs. Good company. Of course, Gibbs has been just 1-for-3 since returning to
Washington
(playoffs in 2005), and could be looking for work if the Redskins don’t collectively bend to his will in 2007. Gibbs’ three teams in his comeback have all finished outside the Top 10 leaguewide in scoring; from 1981 to 1992, Gibbs was in the top 10 all but two years.
REDSKIN SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
Safety LaRon Landry. The Redskins’ defense was almost as bad as the Raiders’ offense in 2006. They were last in TDs allowed (32), last in INTs (6) and last with 20 sacks. They were 29th in yards allowed and 27th in points allowed. And off a shaky offseason, Landry is the only savior around – unless you count aging-before-our-eyes LB London Fletcher-Baker. Landry, the first-round pick (and Washington's only pick before the fifth round) is going to have to be damn good next to Sean Taylor back in space if the Redskins are going to make any kind of impact on defense.
WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 6.1 (24th)
2006 Quality point differential: -8.0 PPG (23rd)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: F-minus
2007 Quality strength of schedule: (24-67; .264), easiest in NFL
We’re not sure why defensive coordinator Gregg “Two Gs” Williams kept his job after the Redskins had the least threatening defense this side of the New Port Richey Giants Pee Wee team. And while they added to the secondary with Landry and Smoot, they did nothing to boost the pass rush and added no depth in the draft. But, they were better than their 5-11 record last year, and have the easiest schedule in the league by our measure. Based on Gibbs’ prior track record, an excellent running game (4.52 YPA in 2006) and the fact that the defense simply can’t be any worse, the Cold, Hard Football Facts suggest they have a chance to be decent. But if that defense is as bad as it was last year, all of the easy opponents in the world aren’t going to help.
COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 7-9, 3rd in NFC East
NEW YORK GIANTS
(last year's record: 8-8; 2-6 vs. Quality Opponents; lost to Philly in wildcard round)
2006 rankings
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
14 |
11 |
7 |
19 |
25 |
24 |
14 |
28 |
Major additions:
QB Anthony Wright (Cincinnati)
RB Reuben Droughns (Cleveland)
LB Kavika Mitchell (Kansas City)
Major subtractions:
RB Tiki Barber (retired)
T Luke Petitgout (Tampa Bay)
TE Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota)
K Jay Feely (Miami)
LB LaVar Arrington (cut)
Draft picks:
1 (20) Aaron Ross, db, Texas.
2 (51) Steve Smith, wr, Southern Cal
3 (81) Jay Alford, dt, Penn St.
4 (116) Zak DeOssie, lb, Brown
5 (153) Kevin Boss, te, Western Oregon
6 (189) Adam Koets, ot, Oregon St.
7 (224) Michael Johnson, db, Arizona
7 (250) Ahmad Bradshaw, rb, Marshall
THE GIANTS SUCK BECAUSE:
They replaced Tiki Barber with Reuben Droughns. Sure, they also have third-year bruiser Brandon Jacobs, but on the flowchart it reads Barber out, Droughns in. Not a good swap. Not only does Droughns have one of the most awkward names in the league to spell, he’s pretty bad. Since Week 13 of the 2005 season, the former Brown has rushed 337 times for 1,122 yards – a pathetic 3.3 YPA average, with four TDs. Meanwhile, Barber averaged 5.2 YPA and 5.1 YPA in his final two seasons.
THE GIANTS RULE BECAUSE:
They have a team right out of central casting. Twenty years from now, maybe ESPN8 (the Ocho!) will do a crappy documentary style series on the Tom Coughlin Giants. With someone thin and awkward playing Eli Manning (can’t wait to see the scene of him crying on the toilet), the hot young rapper of the day playing Plaxico “Sexy Love” Burress, some crazed lunatic as Jeremy Shockey. Someone versatile playing the sexually curious sack-master Michael Strahan. Will he play? Is he gay? And oh, those muscles! And, in a starring role, 78-year-old Ben Kingsley as Coughlin, the high-strung skipper (with a slightly British accent for bonus points). Set that TiVo now.
GIANT QUIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
Quarterback Eli Manning. Well, Eli, there’s no one left to protect you now. Your left tackle, Luke Petitgout is gone, replaced by guard David Diehl. Not only is Barber gone, but he’s taking potshots at you from the broadcast booth. Ouch. Oh well. At least you’re playing in the most visible media market possible. Manning will be 27 by the time the playoffs roll around, so he’s no kid anymore. Tom Brady was working on his third Super Bowl title by that age. Manning's had great skill players around him, but tossed up passer ratings of 75.9 in 2005 and 77.0 in 2006. Another mediocre start, and Giants fans could be calling for beefy Cold, Hard Football Facts favorite Jared Lorenzen to bring his 280 pounds of fun on the field, Hefty Lefty-style.
WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
The Giants were among the worst playoff teams in NFL history last year, did little to fill their statistical holes, based upon our all-important Fillability Index, and lost their only excellent player in Barber, who had just cranked out a pair of the best back-to-back seasons ever. When a one-man team loses the one man, success usually doesn’t ensue, now does it? Despite a fairly easy sked, this looks like the season that things get truly ugly for Tom Coughlin and the G-Men.
COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 5-11, 4th in the NFC East
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