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Fantasy Fact No. 2: Devin Hester sucks
Cold, Hard Fantasy Facts for August 13, 2007
FEARLESS FANTASY FACT NO. 2: Return specialists never have back-to-back great seasons.
Last year, we correctly noted that guys who have ridiculous kicking seasons rarely repeat the feat. Jay Feely of the Giants and Neil Rackers of the Cardinals both went over 140 points in 2005 and were near the top of the fantasy guides for 2006.
But, we warned, the history of 140-point kickers was tragic – an average drop of 29.6 points the next year.
Sure enough, Feely dropped from 147 points to 107, and Rackers from 140 to 116.
Score another one for the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
The same is true for the NFL's big kick/punt return guys. If you're expecting another six TDs from Devin Hester, don't wait up all night.
The life of an NFL returner is like the life of an early-80s new-wave act. Sure, there are a couple of U2s and Duran Durans in the mix, but generally, the rolls of honor are scattered with Kajagoogoos, Bow Wow Wows and Flocks of Seagulls.
Since Billy "White Shoes" Johnson (a member of our Hall of Awesome) and Rick Upchurch put returners on the map in 1975, there have been 18 men with three or more kick/punt returns in a single season (not including Hester).
We don't know for sure how Hester will fare in 2007, but his historical brethren treated the end zone like it was lousy with anthrax the season after their TD glory.
Ten of the 18 didn't score a single TD the season after their superhero performance, and only three – Dante Hall in 2003, Tyrone Hughes of
New Orleans
in 1993 and Steve Smith in 2001 managed to score more than once.
- 1975 White Shoes Johnson, Hou (0 the next season)
- 1975 Rick Upchurch, Den (1)
- 1977 White Shoes Johnson, Hou (0)
- 1985 Ron Brown, Raiders (0)
- 1991 LeRoy Irvin, Rams (1)
- 1993 Tyrone Hughes, NO (2)
- 1994 Mel Gray, Det (0)
- 1995 Andre Coleman, SD (0)
- 1995 Tamarick Vanover, KC (1)
- 1996 Desmond Howard, GB (0)
- 1997 Darrien Gordon, Den (0)
- 1997 Eric Metcalf, SD (0)
- 1998 Glyn Milburn, Chi (0)
- 1998 Roell
Preston
, GB (0)
- 2000 Darrick Vaughn, Atl (1)
- 2001 Steve Smith, Car (2)
- 2002 Michael Lewis, NO (1)
- 2003 Dante Hall, KC (2)
Is Hester fated for a similar flameout in 2007? Probably not. He's healthy, and teams will have to kick it to him a few times. But a repeat of his six-TD performance (on the books as five, not counting his missed field-goal return) would be beyond amazing.
As one-hit wonders EMF might suggest in song, it'd be downright "Unbelievable."
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