By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts Norvaholic
At the risk of repeating ourselves, we'd like to repeat ourselves.
Earlier this summer – during the long, dark days of May – we unveiled our inaugural 1st-and-10 poll, and asked: Will the Chargers stay atop the AFC West with Norv Turner as coach?
The answer was a surprise to us, given San Diego's war chest of talent:
- No (66 percent)
- Yes (34 percent)
We doubt that those numbers would change much if we took the same poll today, and we'd like to remind the majority that the chances of Turner's Chargers falling out of the AFC West are extremely slim.
- The Chargers went 14-2 in 2006, and won the West by five full games.
- They lost their two games by three points each.
- They led the league in scoring margin.
- They will have more or less the same squad in 2007.
Yes, they will have a brand-new coaching staff. And Denver and Kansas City might be improved. But enough to bridge a five-game gap?
Cold, Hard Football Fact: Since the advent of the 16-game schedule in 1978, there have been 17 teams with 14 or more wins. Of those teams (listed in bold type), 12 won the division the next season (71 percent) and two more won 10 games.
- 1979 Steelers (12-4)
- 1984 Redskins (11-5)
- 1985 Dolphins (12-4)
- 1985 49ers (10-6) made playoffs
- 1986 Bears (14-2)
- 1987 Giants (7-8, strike season)
- 1987 Bears (11-4, strike season)
- 1990 49ers (14-2)
- 1991 49ers (10-6)
- 1993 49ers (10-6)
- 1999 Broncos (6-10)
- 1999 Falcons (5-11)
- 1999 Vikings (10-6)
- 2002 Rams (7-9)
- 2004 Patriots (14-2)
- 2005 Patriots (10-6)
- 2005 Steelers (11-5)
- 2006 Colts (12-4)
Also, the history of mediocre coaches with big shoes to fill has been on Turner's side as well.
Turner will not only be replacing a legend in Marty Schottenheimer (200 wins), but he'll be doing it off a good season. This has been a fairly rare occurrence over the Super Bowl era – we could only find nine examples of great coaches going out on top, and none of them were succeeded by future legends of the game.
However, the history suggests that in the year after the legend's departure, the shoe fillers did pretty well.
- 1967 Packers, Vince Lombardi 9-4-1 (SB)
- 1968 Packers, Phil Bengston 6-7-1
- 1975 Bengals, Paul Brown 11-5
- 1976 Bengals, Bill Johnson 10-4 (tied for div. lead, but no playoffs)
- 1977 Rams, Chuck Knox 10-4
- 1978 Rams, Ray Malavasi 12-4 (playoffs)
- 1988 49ers, Bill Walsh 10-6 (SB)
- 1989 49ers, George Seifert 14-2 (SB)
- 1990 Giants, Bill Parcells 13-3 (SB)
- 1991 Giants, Ray Handley 8-8
- 1993 Cowboys, Jimmy Johnson 12-4 (SB)
- 1994 Cowboys, Barry Switzer 12-4 (SB)
- 1996 Patriots, Bill Parcells 11-5 (SB)
- 1997 Patriots, Pete Carroll 10-6 (playoffs)
- 1998 Packers, Mike Holmgren 11-5
- 1999 Packers, Ray Rhodes 8-8
- 1999 Rams, Dick Vermeil 13-3 (SB)
- 2000 Rams, Mike Martz 10-6 (playoffs)
The nine legends won a total of 100 games; their replacements won a total of 90 the next season. Not exactly a huge falloff, at least in the first year.
Interestingly, in every case save one (Malavasi), the shoe filler was gone before a half-decade was up – which suggests that Turner isn't a long-term answer.
But the Magic 8-Ball of history suggests that when it comes to another division title for San Diego, all signs point to yes.
Now, we understand that 
