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Five things we know we know
Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 8, 2007
By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts welfare officer
Some pigskin "pundits" like to fill your mind with things they think they think on everything from football to travel to coffee ... as if you care about another man's opinions. We choose instead to educate you with things we know we know.
Unfortunately, we don't travel much or drink coffee (unless it's got booze in it), so this'll be pretty much all about football.
Hope that's OK with everyone ... So herewith, Five Things We Know We Know, preseason version 1.0.
1. Rookie QBs who are holding out are just postponing the suckage.
Cleveland
fans can’t wait for the debut of Brady Quinn.
Oakland
fans are sweating JaMarcus Russell. They want the future to begin now, and who can blame them when the immediate past is so terrible? But unlike other positions, where a late start to camp leads to a lost season, QBs are already in for a lost season – so they might as well enjoy a few more days on the beach.
The list of rookie QBs to find success is a short one, Vince Young notwithstanding (and let’s not forget, his passer rating was 66.7).
In the 40 years of the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award, only three quarterbacks have claimed the honor. And this is despite the fact that award voters love to douse QBs in drool – 26 of the 40 league MVPs over that same span have been quarterbacks.
The first years of blue-chip QBs that went on to success have been uniformly bad.
Consider this list of shame:
- Peyton Manning, 71.2 rating and 28 INTs as a rookie
- John Elway, 54.9 rating, 47.5 completion percentage
- Steve Young, 56.9 rating, 3 TDs, 8 INTs
- Drew Bledsoe, 65.0 rating, 49.9 completion percentage, 5.8 YPA
- Donovan McNabb, 60.7 rating, 49.1 completion percentage, 4.4 YPA
The last rookie quarterback to put up a great passing season was Ben Roethlisberger, who had a truly remarkable 98.1 rating in 2004. He also stepped onto a well-organized, playoff-caliber football team, which the likes of Quinn and Russell won’t be doing.
2. Legends aren’t forged in August, but there can be indications of greatness.
While preseason flashes in the pan are legendary, stars sometimes emerge as well. Tony Romo played the entire Week 3 preseason game for
Dallas
against
Seattle,
completing 19 of 25 passes for 235 yards and a TD. He finished the exhibition season with a league-high 833 yards and a 95.1 rating. By October, he was a starter – and a good one, December slump/January goat horns aside. Denver's Jay Cutler also excelled in the preseason. He finished the summer with a 108.3 rating and looked great in his big December coming-out party. The leading receiver in the 2006 preseason was
Green Bay
’s Greg Jennings, who slumped in the second half of the year but still finished with solid rookie numbers: 45 catches for 632 yards.
Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew averaged 4.6 YPA in the preseason, while breakout 49ers star Frank Gore averaged 5.4. Jerious
Norwood, who sparkled in
Atlanta, averaged 7.3 YPA in the preseason. And Brandon Jacobs of the Giants foreshadowed his goal-line excellence with five preseason TDs.
On defense, Juqua Thomas registered 4.5 sacks for the Eagles, and then went out and topped his entire career output (57 games) with six in the regular season. The Patriots’ Asante Samuel tied for the preseason lead with two picks, and then led the NFL with 10.
On special teams, Devin Hester’s 22.8-yard average on punt returns was a foreshadowing of things to come as well: He went on to rewrite the NFL record books with six return TDs for the Bears.
Of course, there were plenty of no-names atop the preseason leaderboards as well – No. 2 receiver
Jamaica
Rector of Dallas was cut, and leading rusher Quincy Wilson of Cincy was inactive for all but three games.
Atlanta
punter Michael Koenen was perfect as a field goal kicker … then flamed out in the regular season, missing six of eight field goals before getting replaced by 74-year-old Morten Andersen.
So, should you overreact to a big performance in the preseason? No. But can you allow yourself to get a little excited? Sure.
Just this once.
3. If you’re betting on preseason football, it’s probably time to call Gamblers Anonymous (1-888-GA-HELPS).
On Friday, the Patriots will be traveling to
Tampa
to open the preseason against the Buccaneers. In the regular season, the Pats (12-4 last year) would be at least 5-point favorites over the Bucs (4-12 in 2006). It might even be a touchdown or more, even though the game is in
Florida.
But since it’s preseason,
Tampa Bay
is a 1½-point favorite. The thinking is that because the Patriots are a more settled team, they’ll be looking at their third-line players, while the Bucs might have their starters in longer.
Home teams are definitely given the benefit of the doubt in the preseason – in the first week, the only home 'dog is Houston (6-15 in exhibitions the last five years, worst in the NFL) against NFC champ
Chicago.
Still, the line is only one point – despite the difference in quality between the teams.
Apparently, this is based solely on home-field advantage. Or maybe it’s because Venus is rising in the East and Scorpio is in a down phase. We’re not sure. All we know is, if you’ve bet $100 on
the Bucs and the "over" here in the preseason, you might want to consider buying
U.S.
savings bonds instead. And then pick up that phone.
4. Kings of the preseason aren’t kings of the postseason.
In 2006, the Bengals treated their preseason opponents like a bunch of Pop Warner Pee Wee Bs. They went 4-0 and outscored teams by an average of 19.3 points a game, giving the long-suffering fans of Cincinnati hope for greatness.
Nope. The Bengals went 8-8 – as did the other unbeaten teams in the 2006 preseason, the Giants and Panthers.
A 4-0 start for
Carolina
was nothing new – over the past five years, the Panthers have the best record in the preseason at 15-6. This could be why they are annually chosen as Super Bowl contenders.
But the Panthers have been paper champs, with two playoff appearances, one Super Bowl and a 44-36 record.
The rest of the top five preseason teams over the past half-decade have been similar – competitive teams that haven’t gone far (although
Tampa Bay
did win it all in 2002):
2t. N.Y. Jets, 15-6 (39-41 regular season)
2t. Denver,
15-6 (51-29)
4.
Dallas,
14-5-1 (39-41)
5.
Tampa Bay,
13-8 (39-41)
Three of the five have losing records, and their combined mark of 212-188 (.530) is decent, but not spectacular.
5. Even in the preseason, going 0-4 is cause for concern.
Over the past 10 seasons, there have been 20 teams to finish the preseason 0-4 or 0-5. Last year, it was
Washington
and
Pittsburgh, two
playoff teams from 2005 that ended up struggling in 2007. The Steelers and Redskins were part of a trend. Of 0-4 teams in the preseason, only four (20 percent) won 10 or more games in the regular season. Eight were mediocre (7-9 wins), and eight were outright terrible (6 or fewer).
The 20 percent figure is significant, as over that same decade, 102 of 320 teams (31.9 percent) won 10+ games.
However, don’t fret too much if your team tanks the preseason – the 2005 Colts had an incredibly bad 0-5 preseason and then went 14-2.
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