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Tale o' the Tape: Russell vs. Quinn
Cold, Hard Football Facts for April 6, 2007
(Ed. Note: This is the first of what we plan to make a regular feature here in the offseason, and ultimately a weekly feature during the 2007 season and beyond. Tale o' the Tape will compare two competing forces the only way we know how: by pulling aside the curtain of opinion, rumor and assumption and assessing these competitors through the pigskin prism of Cold, Hard Football Facts. It's going to be fun: we're going to compare great (and not so great) players, teams, coaches, competing schools of football theory, college football powerhouses, traditions ... you name it. It will be a fun, far-reaching feature that will help you cut through the BS and understand football by looking at it only through factual analysis.)
TALE O' THE TAPE:
JAMARCUS RUSSELL
vs. BRADY QUINN
JaMarcus Russell is the Kobe beef of the 2007 Draft, the flavor of the day being offered by all the trendiest draft-niks.
So we spice this flavor of the day with thick grains of salt.
With that said, it's hard not to be impressed with Russell, the junior quarterback (he redshirted his freshman year) out of LSU. He's a physically gifted gunslinger who led LSU to a 25-4 record in his two-plus years as a starter, after coming out of high school as one of the most heavily recruited players of 2003 and the most prolific passer (10,744 yards) in Alabama schoolboy history.
The buzz over the beefy quarterback has been so great that draft "pundits" have all ceded the No. 1 pick to Russell. They also seem to have forgotten about November's No. 1 Pick du Jour: Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn, who was pegged as the top quarterback coming out of college back at a time when few NFL fans had even heard of Russell.
But here they are today: Russell the unanimously proclaimed No. 1 and Quinn ... somewhere below that, not even a Top 10 pick in some projections.
As usual, the hype quickly builds around just a handful of key stats and factors, what we'll call Hype Enzymes. These are the catalysts that spur Pavlovian reactions from fans and pigskin "pundits." In this case, the Hype Enzymes are:
- Russell's size. He is a physical freak – a 6-6 monster who weighs up to 260 pounds (according to some reports)
- Russell's howitzer of an arm. Some scouts say he has the strongest arm of any QB at at any level of football
- Russell and LSU waxed Quinn and Notre Dame in the 2007 Sugar Bowl, 41-14.
Russell may in fact be the better quarterback. He may prove to be the better pro. But we break out our brand new pigskin tape measure to compare the two top quarterbacking prospects in the 2007 NFL Draft.
Quinn was a four-year starter at Notre Dame. Russell started a few games as a redshirt freshman in 2004 before becoming a full-time starter in 2005. To even out the statistical playing field, we looked only at the past two seasons in which both were fulltime starters.
Here are the results:
RUSSELL vs. QUINN (2005 & 2006 seasons)
|
Advantage |
RUSSELL |
|
QUINN |
Advantage | |
X |
6-6 |
Height |
6-4 |
| |
X |
250 |
Weight |
232 |
| |
|
420 |
Completions |
581 |
X | |
|
653 |
Attempts |
917 |
X | |
X |
64.3 |
Comp. % |
63.4 |
| |
|
5,572 |
Yards |
7,345 |
X | |
X |
8.53 |
YPA |
8.01 |
| |
|
222.88 |
YPG |
293.80 |
X | |
|
43 |
TD |
69 |
X | |
|
6.58 |
TD % |
7.52 |
X | |
|
17 |
INT |
14 |
X | |
|
2.60 |
INT % |
1.53 |
X | |
|
2.53:1 |
TD:INT ratio |
4.93:1 |
X | |
|
102.3 |
NFL passer rating* |
107.0 |
X | |
X |
36 |
Sacked |
51 |
| |
X |
5.22 |
Sacked % |
5.56 |
| |
X |
21-4 |
Team Record |
19-6 |
| |
X |
9 |
Games vs. ranked teams** |
5 |
| |
X |
6-3 |
Record vs. ranked teams |
0-5 |
| |
X |
31.24 |
PPG |
33.72 |
X |
* we used the NFL formula, not the college formula (which inflates numbers) because it's better understood by CHFF readers
CONCLUSIONS
Quinn Ain't Half Bad – Look at that TD to INT ratio. Quinn threw a remarkable 69 TDs over the past two seasons, to just 14 INTs. That's nearly a 5-to-1 ratio, and that's almost unheard of. To put it into context, Peyton Manning, in his remarkably productive last two years at Tennessee, tossed 57 TDs and 23 INTs, a ratio of 2.48-to-1, or about half the ratio we've seen from Quinn.
Russell played (and beat) better teams – As anyone knows who reads the Cold, Hard Football Facts regularly (Hi Cousin Daisy!), we put a lot of stock in the quality of opposition a team or individual faces. The premise is simple: it's easy to rack up stats and victories against inferior teams.
In this area, Russell clearly outperformed Quinn. With him at the helm, LSU faced nine teams that finished the season in the Top 25. They beat six of them. Quinn went 0-5 for over the past two years against ranked teams.
Quinn could have used a little help on defense – In those five games against ranked teams over the past two years, the Notre Dame defense surrendered a woeful 40.0 PPG. Quinn and his offense averaged 22.0 PPG - not blazing hot, but not hibernating in big games, either. At the end of the day, though, it was a defense as stiff and solid as diarrhea that cost the Irish in big games. In Russell's nine games against ranked teams, he led LSU to 20.4 PPG, while his defense surrendered 19.4 PPG - less than half what the Irish defense surrendered against ranked teams over the past two years.
Russell played on an incredibly talented team – Russell deserves a lot of credit for leading LSU to victory against top competition week in and week out. But he was at the helm of one watertight ship. The Tigers won the national title in 2003, Russell's redshirt season. Russell did not play in LSU's 2005 Peach Bowl game vs. Miami. Under the fearless leadership of quarterback Matt Flynn, who's not projected as the top pick in the 2007 Draft, LSU waxed the Hurricanes, 40-3. Flynn completed 13 of 22 passes for 196 yards, 8.9 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT. Not a bad day
THE BOTTOM LINE – Russell will in all likelihood be grabbed by Oakland with the top pick in the 2007 Draft. He may go on to become a Hall of Fame performer and it may prove a wise pick. Nobody knows at this point. But we do know this: we won't be surprised if Brady Quinn proves to be the better pro.
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