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11 things we know we know
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 15, 2007
The "pundits" like to tell you what they think they think.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts fill your greedy little gridiron mind with what we know we know.
Today, we field an entire team with pigskin truisms: 11 things we know we know.
Digest all the data ... and then sit back as we begin to bang the drum slowly on what will surely be among the biggest weeks of title-game hype in recent history.
1. It’s been a banner year for dome teams
The futility of dome teams in the playoffs has been well chronicled by the Cold, Hard Football Facts over the years.
The Colts and Saints appear intent on upsetting the historic beer cart (the Cold, Hard Football Facts raided the apple cart long ago).
Here are some of the gory details. Dome teams have appeared in 98 postseason games, including the three victories by Indy and New Orleans in this year’s playoffs. These dome teams are:
- 39-59 all-time (.398)
- 23-14 at home (.622)
- 16-45 on the road (.262)
- 3-0 this year (1.000)
In the entire history of the NFL, dome teams have won just 19 playoff games at home against teams that play outdoors – two of them came this season:
- Indy beat Kansas City at home in a dome in the wild-card round.
- New Orleans beat Philly at home in a dome in the divisional round.
Indy’s solid 15-6 beating of No. 2 seed Baltimore was just the 16th postseason win for a dome team on the road.
Indy hosts an outdoor team Sunday in the AFC title game, while New Orleans heads outdoors to play at Chicago. History says it’s exceedingly difficult for dome teams to win in the playoffs … but so far, the Colts and Saints have been thumbing their collective nose at history.
The handicap that is a dome is obvious when we break the NFL down by divisions. The divisions with no dome teams dominate football. The divisions with multiple dome teams are the weakest in football. The correlation between domes and difficulty reaching or winning Super Bowls is pretty dramatic. Remember, only one dome team has won a Super Bowl, the 1999 Rams. And that team had the luxury of playing all its postseason games indoors.
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Division |
Dome Teams |
SB Appearances |
SB Victories |
|
NFC East |
0 |
18 |
10 |
|
AFC East |
0 |
15 |
6 |
|
AFC West |
0 |
14 |
6 |
|
AFC North |
0 |
9 |
6 |
|
NFC West |
1 |
9 |
6 |
|
NFC North |
2 |
9 |
4 |
|
NFC South |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
AFC South* |
2+ |
3 |
1 |
*In the case of the AFC South, we included the Houston Oilers, who played in a dome for most of their existence before becoming the Tennessee Titans (who play outdoors and promptly made a Super Bowl appearance).
2. Only an idiot would bet against the Patriots in the postseason
Really, where do you start with this team?
We know we have a reputation for being “pro-Patriots.” But you find another team in history that’s put together this kind of amazing playoff run – let alone a contemporary team – and we’ll surrender to the accusations.
Otherwise, shut yer friggin’ trap and stand in awe of the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
By now, you probably know all the numbers. This, to us, is probably the most amazing: The Patriots are 5-0 against No. 1 seeds in the Brady-Belichick Era, beating:
- Pittsburgh in the 2001 AFC title game
- St. Louis in the 2001 Super Bowl
- Pittsburgh in the 2004 AFC title game
- Philadelphia in the 2004 Super Bowl
- San Diego in the 2006 divisional playoffs
Every single one of these teams won at least 13 games. Their combined record was 69-11 (.862). They went 0-5 against the Patriots, who were underdogs in three of these games.
The Patriots beat these No. 1 seeds by an average of a touchdown: 26.6 to 20.6.
New England, which won just four playoff games in its first 35 years of existence, now boasts the best postseason winning percentage of any NFL franchise at 19-11 (.633) (minimum 10 games). New England jumped past Green Bay (24-14; .632) with the win over San Diego.
The Patriots have won 15 playoff games since 1996. The Colts and Bears each have 15 postseason victories in their history – the Colts since 1953 and the Bears since 1920.
3. The New Orleans rebound is more amazing than you think
The rebound of the Saints from a homeless, post-hurricane 3-13 team last year to a conference title contender this year has been truly remarkable – and well chronicled in the pigskin media.
But it doesn’t tell the entire story of how remarkable the franchise's turnaround has been.
Remember, the Saints didn’t just suck last year – they have sucked throughout their entire history. Here are some of the Cold, Hard Football Facts on the futility of the NFL’s New Orleans entry.
The Saints:
- joined the NFL in 1967.
- did not have their first winning season until 1987 (12-3). But that season comes with an asterisk. The 1987 season was interrupted by a player’s strike and several games were played by replacement players.
- had their first “real” winning season the following year, in 1988 (10-6).
- had just seven winning season from 1967 to 2005.
- went 10-6 this year for the third-best record in franchise history (non-strike seasons). The Saints went 11-5 and 12-4 in 1991 and 1992, respectively, under Jim Mora.
- had appeared in the playoffs just five times heading into this season.
- were 1-5 in the playoffs before Saturday’s win over the Eagles.
4. The Indy defense is sick of taking the fall for an embarrassing playoff offense
Year after year, the Indy offense shits the bed in the playoffs.
Year after year, the “pundits” ignore the evidence, the statistics, the scores and the Cold, Hard Football Facts and lay blame for the inevitable postseason implosion at the feet of the Indy defense.
The truth is that the Indy offense has played well below its regular-season standards come playoff team, while the Indy defense has comported itself fairly well.
In their seven playoff seasons in the Manning Era:
- The Colts have averaged 27.1 PPG in the regular season.
- The Colts have averaged 21.3 PPG in the postseason.
- That’s a decline of 21.4 percent come playoff time.
Now let’s look at the defense. In their seven playoff seasons in the Manning Era:
- The Colts surrendered 20.2 PPG in the regular season.
- The Colts surrendered 20.6 PPG in the postseason.
- That’s a decline of 2.0 percent come playoff time.
Despite being roundly criticized year after year, the Indy defense has surrendered more than 24 points just twice in the 11 playoff games of the Manning Era.
The Indy defense is leaving no doubt this year that it’s not the reason for Indy's past postseason failings. It has stepped up in a remarkably big way, while the Indy offense can barely find the end zone (two TDs, 8 FGs in two playoff games).
Here’s how the Indy defense stacks up in the regular season and postseason this year:
|
|
PPG |
YPG |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPG |
|
Opp. Conversions |
|
Regular season |
22.5 |
332.2 |
173.0 |
159.2 |
80.4 |
101/205 (49.3%) |
|
Postseason |
7.0 |
185.0 |
63.5 |
121.5 |
49.3 |
4/24 (16.7%) |
Certainly, this has been a rare performance for the Colts and their defense.
Statistically speaking, there is absolutely no reason the Colts should be alive in the playoffs. Yet there they are, full of piss, vinegar and pride, playing in the AFC title game for just the fourth time since the 1970 Colts won Super Bowl V.
What's different? Tony Dungy’s Cover 2 defense, which has had more holes in it than a Jenna Jameson video for most of his time in Indy, is suddenly playing with ruthless efficiency. For two straight games, the Colts' defensive front, MIA for 16 regular season games, has gotten great penetration.
The defensive backs, meanwhile, are doing what the Cover 2 intends for them to do: keeping everything in front of them and funneling every pass play into the middle of the field, where two straight teams have found no room to move.
Simply put, the Indy defense has been dominant in its two playoff games, giving opponents no room to move.
5. The CHFF Chief Troll is an idiot
Want to hear a man who pretty much failed to accurately analyze just about every single thing that happened this weekend?
Listen to this interview with Cold, Hard Football Facts Chief Troll Kerry J. Byrne on sports radio WEEI in Boston last week. Click here, then click the “Dennis & Callahan” link and you’ll find a link to Byrne’s interview. Among the lowlights:
- Baltimore is the team to beat. (Wrong!)
- New England will exploit the San Diego secondary. (Wrong!)
- Jeff Garcia makes the Eagles the team to beat. (Wrong!)
Hey, we just work with the dude.
 6. Coach Marty Schottenheimer and “Coach” Craig T. Nelson were separated at birthHey, we can’t be the only people who see a resemblance.
For the record, that’s Coach on top and “Coach” on the bottom.
7. Manning and Brady have won in spite of themselves
With their win over Kansas City in the wild-card round, the Colts became just the 15th team in the  Super Bowl Era to win in the playoffs despite having a quarterback throw three INTs.
The Patriots became the 16th yesterday with their win over San Diego.
Teams that throw three picks in a playoff game are now 16-75 (.176) in the Super Bowl Era.
8. Chicago is as solid is Jell-o
Has a 13-3 team ever looked so shaky?
The Bears had to go to overtime, at home, to beat the 9-7 Seahawks, 27-24.
Chicago, in other words, nearly suffered what would have been the biggest upset in NFL history – based upon relative records.
The Bears had a six-game advantage over the Seahawks in the regular season. In the entire history of the NFL, only once has a team with a six-game advantage over an opponent lost to them in the postseason. In 1995, the 9-7 Colts edged the 13-3 Chiefs, 10-7. (You guessed it – Schottenheimer was the coach of that Chiefs team.)
The feeling of impending postseason doom has become a familiar one in Chicago.
- Chicago won the NFC North with an 11-5 record last year and fielded the top scoring defense in football. They were shredded by Carolina, 29-21, at home in the divisional round.
- Chicago won the NFC Central with a 13-3 record in 2001 and fielded the top scoring defense in football. They were shredded by Philly, 33-19, at home in the divisional round.
- Chicago won the NFC Central with a 14-2 record in 1986 and fielded the top scoring defense in football (it was even stingier than the legendary 1985 Bears defense). Still, they were shredded by Washington, 27-13, at home in the divisional round.
Notice a trend here?
The Bears have won just four playoff games since those mighty 1985 Bears crushed New England, 46-10, in Super Bowl XX.
 9. Manning can surpass Johnny’s U’s postseason victory mark SundayPeyton Manning and Johnny Unitas will be joined at the historical hip for time immemorial. They can both lay claim to being the best passers of their generation and both played with that classic and familiar Colts horseshoe on their helmet.
They’re now also matched in the postseason record books.
With Indy’s victory over Baltimore, Manning has been the winning quarterback in five postseason games, tying the franchise mark held by Unitas. Manning can surpass Unitas if the Colts beat New England Sunday.
Actually, Manning might even deserve the nod over the great Johnny U already: Unitas started, but did not finish, the Colts victory over Dallas in Super Bowl V.
Unitas and the Colts beat the Giants in both the 1958 and 1959 title games. They also beat Cincinnati and Oakland in the 1970 playoffs, on the way to Super Bowl V.
It’s interesting to note that Unitas, considered one of the great clutch quarterbacks of all time, did not win a single playoff game in the 1960s. In fact, he appeared in only two playoff games in the decade, losing to Cleveland, 27-0, in the 1964 NFL title game and to Green Bay in a rare tie-breaker playoff game after the 1965 season.
10. Brian Billick lost the game when he lost his nerve
It’s clear to impartial observers that teams that grab the initiative typically grab victory. It’s not just anecdotally obvious – it has been proven empirically through scientific study: Michael Lewis, the author of "Moneyball" and "Blind Side," wrote about it recently in ESPN the Magazine. He reported on a Berkeley economics professor named David Romer who essentially proved that it pays for coaches to call plays more aggressively than conventional wisdom calls for.
Baltimore head coach Brian Billick never got the message.
In his team’s sluggish, worse-than-watching-grass-grow 15-6 loss – at home! – to Indianapolis, he committed a raven sin: He literally threw away a rare opportunity to score, like it was nothing more than a bubble-gum wrapper.
The situation: The Ravens trailed 9-3 with 55 seconds to play in the first half when they took over on their own 20. The Ravens were at home, with a veteran quarterback at the wheel and two timeouts in his pocket.
The opportunity: In a game in which it has become clear that scoring opportunities will be at a minimum, Baltimore needed just 50 yards to get into field goal range – hardly a Herculean task given the situation.
The decision: Billick called a pair of run plays to run out the clock.
You only get so many possessions in a game, which means you only have so many opportunities to put points on the board: Baltimore got 12 – and Billick simply threw one of them away.
We’ll never know what would have happened. But we do know this: You don’t score by squatting on the ball. We also know this: Baltimore desperately needed points.
Everybody knew that Baltimore desperately needed points … everybody but Billick.
Every school child knows that opportunity knocks just once. But defeatist football beats down the door.
11. Adam Vinatieri is not a man … he is a machine
Some things are so dependable they’re boring.
Old Faithful will blow its top every 90 minutes. The CHFF crew will ditch its bar tab at the company Christmas party. And Adam Vinatieri will drill field goals straight through the uprights with all the emotion of a pickled herring – unless it’s kinda important, like a Super Bowl-winning kick or something. Then he might pump his fist.
Only seven men have kicked five field goals in a postseason game. Vinatieri’s the only kicker who’s done it twice. The first time the Colts were the victims. He was a perfect 5-for-5 in the 2003 AFC title game when he played for New England. The Patriots won, 24-14.
This time, the Colts were the beneficiaries, as Vinatieri accounted for all of the Colts' points in their 15-6 win over Baltimore Saturday.
He was a perfect 5-for-5 Saturday … and four of the five weren’t even a question once they left his foot. The other, a personal playoff-best 51 yarder, hit the cross bar but bounced Vinatieri’s way. The great ones, of course, usually get those bounces.
Vinatieri has now kicked an NFL-record 33 postseason field goals, in 19 games.
Gary Anderson, who played with four different teams, held the record at 32 playoff field goals, in 22 games.
Here’s a quick look at the kickers who have nailed five field goals in a single postseason game:
- Chuck Nelson, Minnesota vs. San Francisco, 1987
- Matt Bahr, N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco, 1990
- Steve Christie, Buffalo vs. Miami, 1992
- Brad Daluiso, N.Y. Giants vs. Minnesota, 1997
- John Kasay, Carolina vs. Dallas, 2003
- Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis vs. Carolina, 2003
- Vinatieri, New England vs. Indy, 2003
- Vinatieri, Indy vs. Baltimore, 2006
COLD, HARD FOOTBALL FACTS at a GLANCE
Deion Branch, who held out and was traded from New England to Seattle for a first-round pick, had eight catches for 96 yards in Seattle’s two playoff games. Street free agent Jabar Gaffney, who joined the Patriots in October, has caught 18 passes for 207 yards in New England’s two playoff games.
Each of the Top 10 rushers this year are done for the season. The two top passers are still alive (Drew Brees and Peyton Manning).
18 of the NFL’s top 20 sack leaders are watching the final four from home. Only one member of the final four had 10 sacks or more in the regular season (Bears rookie Mark Anderson).
New England cornerback Asante Samuel has the same number of INTs this year (iincluding playoffs) as the entire New Orleans defense (11).
New Orleans was minus-4 in turnover margin heading into the playoffs. Only five of the last 40 teams to reach the Super Bowl had a negative turnover differential. None of them won.
All four NFC playoff games this year have been decided by three points or fewer. This is unprecedented. Since the NFL went to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, no conference has even had three wild-card/divisional games decided by a field goal or less. In fact, from 1990 to 2005, only 27 of the 128 games in the wild-card/divisional rounds were decided by three points or fewer (21 percent); five of the eight games this year were (62.5 percent).
New Orleans QB Drew Brees hasn’t played a game at under 40 degrees since 2004. Sunday’s preliminary Chicago forecast calls for game-time temperatures of 32 degrees. Brees grew up in toasty Texas. But, of course, he played his college ball at Purdue, in chilly Indiana.
Indy’s Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison have combined for an NFL record 106 TDs in 138 regular-season games (0.77 TDs per game). They’ve combed for 2 TDs in 11 postseason games (0.18 TDs per game).
Manning has played his single worst statistical game of the year in the postseason for the fifth time in seven playoff appearances.
One Indy offensive player, at least, steps it up in the postseason. Over his four-year regular-season career, Colts TE Dallas Clark has averaged 31.1 YPG receiving. In five playoff games, he’s averaging 73.2 YPG.
The Patriots surrendered more than 23 points just once this season – to the Colts, in Week 9 (27-20 loss).
New England, New Orleans and Chicago ranked 1st, 3rd and 7th in fourth-down conversions in 2006. The Colts were the only team in the NFL not to convert a single fourth down (0-4).
Hidden yards: The Bears led the NFL in getting first downs by penalty (36).
Seven teams failed to return an interception for a TD during the regular season. Three of them are still alive in the playoffs: the Saints, Patriots and Colts. The Bears returned just 1 INT for a TD this year.
Reggie Bush has more yards receiving than rushing in 10 of the Saints’ 17 games this season (including playoffs).
Bush is one reason why the Saints led the NFL in yards after catch (YAC) with 2,212.
All of the final four teams finished in the top 10 in fewest sacks allowed: Colts (first), Saints (fourth), Bears (seventh), Patriots (10th).
The Colts have won 14 or more games in three of the last four seasons (including playoffs). So have the Patriots. The Saints, on the other hand, have never won more than 12 games in a season in their entire 40-year history.
Rex Grossman this year became the ninth different quarterback to lead the Bears in passing yards for a season since 1996 (11 years).
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