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Road to the Super Bowl paved with upsets
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 5, 2007
At this football-frenzied time of year, no phrase is uttered more often than "home-field advantage."
With the NFC's best record, the Bears had already clinched home-field advantage before dropping their season finale to Green Bay and finishing 13-3. They won't play anywhere but frigid Soldier Field until the Super Bowl, provided they advance that far.
In the AFC, the 14-2 Chargers locked up the No. 1 seed by winning their last 10 games. Home-field advantage for them means playing in warm weather throughout the postseason (up to two games in San Diego and then, should they make it, the title tilt in Miami).
By claiming the second spots in their respective conferences, the Ravens and Saints likewise earned a first-round bye. They are only assured of home-field advantage in the divisional playoffs, but either would host their conference championship game with a win and a loss by the top seed.
Of course, the two other division winners in each conference must play this weekend. Hosting wild-card games are the Colts (No. 3) and Patriots (No. 4) in the AFC, and the Eagles (No. 3) and Seahawks (No. 4) in the NFC. All of them have been installed as favorites, partly because they enjoy – say it together now – home-field advantage.
So how much of an edge does playing in your own stadium provide?
Historically, home teams have won approximately 70 percent of the time in the modern NFL postseason. But a close look at the Cold, Hard Football Facts reveals several trends that should give this weekend's road teams cause for optimism:
- As the playoff format has expanded, so have the opportunities for upsets. Since the creation of the wild-card round in 1978, there have been two or more road winners each year except one: 1983. That season, Seattle's victory at Miami in the divisional round stood alone.
- Recently, road teams have been prevailing at an unprecedented clip. In the first 14 years that each conference had two wild-card games (1990-2003), the visitors had never won more than half of them. But in each of the past two seasons, the road teams have won three out of four. Only the Colts in the 2004 playoffs and the Patriots last year were home wild-card winners.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts decided to analyze how visitors have generally fared in each of the postseason's three rounds. (For a complete rundown of road winners in the playoffs, click here.) These were our findings:
Wild-card playoffs
Road winners: 31 in 94 games (.330)
Introduced in 1978, this round consisted of a single game in each conference through 1989. The lone exception was the strike year of 1982, which saw four first-round matchups in the AFC and another four in the NFC. Since 1990, each conference has played two wild-card games, and the road teams have gotten swept only once (2000).
Divisional playoffs
Road winners: 38 in 144 games (.264)
These games initially featured three division winners and one wild card in each conference. From 1978 to the present, they have served as the second round of the playoffs. In the 36 seasons since the merger, all four home teams have held serve just nine times.
Conference championships
Road winners: 25 in 72 games (.347)
This is the round in which home teams have been the most vulnerable. A road team has triumphed in at least one of these two games for each of the past nine years.
Teams that make the playoffs as wild cards certainly have an uphill battle. Only eight of them have advanced to the Super Bowl – and just four have won it. But hope springs eternal among those who fight for gridiron glory.
Here's a look at the four teams that will try to be road warriors this weekend:
N.Y. JETS
 Seed: No. 5 in the AFC Opponent: New England
Road record in 2006: 6-2 (.750)
Road record in franchise playoff history: 3-7 (.300)
Only the Patriots and Bears had a better road record this season than the Jets, whose defining victory came at Gillette Stadium, the site of Sunday's showdown. The Jets are also the only one of the four wild-card teams to win a playoff game away from home in the last decade. (They beat San Diego on a field goal in overtime two years ago.) New York's other two road playoff wins occurred following the strike-shortened 1982 season.
KANSAS CITY
 Seed: No. 6 in the AFC Opponent: Indianapolis
Road record in 2006: 3-5 (.375)
Road record in franchise playoff history: 5-7 (.417)
The Chiefs won just three road games this season, but they lost three others by a field goal. Being away from notoriously raucous Arrowhead Stadium might actually suit them, as they have recorded a mere two playoff victories there. Kansas City's last three postseason appearances have been disappointing home defeats after 13-3 campaigns (2003, 1997, 1995). Unfortunately, the Chiefs haven't traveled well either: Their only road playoff win since the merger came in 1993.
DALLAS
 Seed: No. 5 in the NFC Opponent: Seattle
Road record in 2006: 5-3 (.625)
Road record in franchise playoff history: 9-12 (.429)
Despite their recent struggles down the stretch, the Cowboys haven't lost on the road in two months. But an even more distant memory is their postseason success. It was just over 10 years ago that they last won a playoff game. In addition to sharing the NFL record with five Super Bowl titles, Dallas leads the league with nine road playoff victories – all of them taking place since the merger.
N.Y. GIANTS
 Seed: No. 6 in the NFC Opponent: Philadelphia
Road record in 2006: 5-3 (.625)
Road record in franchise playoff history: 3-13 (.188)
The Giants are this season's only playoff team with a losing record at home. One of their biggest road wins was at Texas Stadium, but they haven't always prospered in hostile environments. Although their illustrious 82-year history includes five league championships, the Giants have experienced tremendous road woes in the postseason. The current players should be especially glad that they aren't playing in San Francisco on Sunday. Five of the franchise's last eight road playoff games have been against the 49ers, and New York has been victorious just once (1990).
The expectations for these four wild cards are understandably low. They all have endured dismal, double-digit losses in the last month, and none of them have the benefit of home-field advantage. But each will be trying to emulate last season's Steelers, who became the first team in league history to win three road playoff games and then capture a Super Bowl title.
As we've seen through the years, the road to an NFL championship can be paved with upsets.
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