Your pigskin weatherman, the Cold, Hard Football Facts, pulls out his trusty pigskin barometer to gauge the high pressure system moving in over the NFC playoffs.
Needless to say, your gridiron weather channel is ready to issue a state of emergency for the NFC's championship aspirations.
CHICAGO (13-3, No. 1 seed)
Quality wins: (2) Seahawks, Jets
Quality losses: (1) Patriots
Signature game: A 34-31 overtime victory against woeful Tampa Bay in Week 15 that indicated that all was not well in Chicagoland, after such a promising and
dominating start to the season.
Why they can win it all: The Bears limped across the finish line but need to win just two games at home against likely inferior foes to reach the big game. Once there, the Bears would probably be an underdog against any of the likely AFC Super Bowl representatives. But it's not hard to envision a scenario in which a 13-3 team can win that game, no matter who the opponent may be.
Why they can't win it all: Even with poor quarterback play – a problem you kinda don't want to have heading into the postseason – Chicago fans thought they could count on a defense that, for a period early in the season, appeared like it might take a place in Bears lore beside the great defenses of the mid-1980s.
That defense fell apart in the last four weeks of the season, surrendering 26.2 PPG to St. Louis and to low-wattage offensive powers Tampa Bay, Detroit and Green Bay. The performance in those games was beyond grotesque on both sides of the ball, considering the relative records of each team heading into those games. Chicago has not had an impressive win since its 41-10 victory over San Francisco back on Oct. 29. The Bears have scored just 36 total points in their last three games against AFC foes (Miami, N.Y. Jets, New England), something that doesn't bode well if they do make the Super Bowl. Their overall schedule, meanwhile, was just this side of cupcake: Chicago's opponents this year went 110-146 (.430).
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 10 percent
NEW ORLEANS (10-6, No. 2 seed)
Quality wins: (2) Eagles, Cowboys
Quality losses: (1) Ravens
Why they can win it all: The Cold, Hard Football Facts, as you might imagine, aren't big on karma and juju. But sometimes it's hard not to get caught up in the "feel-good" aspects of the Saints story this season. Sometimes emotion matters in football, as much as we try to sweep it from our lives. In practical terms, the Saints have one of the most effective passing attacks in football, after leading the NFL in the
all-important yards per pass attempt category for much of the season, and have received big-time performances from a variety of unexpected stars throughout the season, from San Diego reject quarterback Drew Brees to
unheralded seventh-round draft pick Marques Colston.
Why they can't win it all: Only one team in history has surrendered more than the Saints' 20.1 PPG and gone on to win the Super Bowl (the 1983 Raiders allowed 21.1 PPG). If not for the Colts and their historically inept run defense, the Saints would have been drawing comparisons to some of
the worst run defenses in football history. They allow a woeful 4.94 yards per rush attempt, but early leads have prevented opponents from exploiting this gigantic problem. If a team gets a good lead on the Saints, they should be able to control the clock by moving the ball on the ground. New Orleans was also a pathetic 1-3 against AFC foes, beating only lowly Cleveland by five points back in Week 1.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 6 percent
PHILADELPHIA (10-6, No. 3 seed) (also split with the Giants)
Quality wins: (2) Cowboys, Cowboys
Quality losses: (2) Saints, Colts
Signature game: A 23-7 win at Dallas on Christmas Day in which the Eagles muscled in on first place in the NFC East and Jeff Garcia surpassed Tony Romo as the top replacement quarterback story of the 2006 season.
Why they can win it all: The Eagles are the only team in the NFC rolling into the playoffs on a serious streak: They've won five straight games, including three in a row on the road against divisional foes.
Why they can't win it all: Like almost every team in the NFC, Philly simply doesn't have a Super Bowl-caliber defense this season, allowing 20.5 PPG. Like the Saints, the Eagles have not proven capable of beating the superior competition in the AFC. Like the Saints, their only win against an AFC opponent came over a lowly team, Houston, back in Week 1. The Eagles were waxed in their last two games against AFC teams, Tennessee and Indy ... not so coincidentally, they were Philly's last two defeats.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 10 percent
SEATTLE (9-7, No. 4 seed)
Quality wins: (1) Broncos
Quality losses: (3) Bears, Chiefs, Chargers
Signature game: A gift 23-20 win at Denver after Mike Shanahan decided to use the arrival of the defending NFC champs to give rookie QB Jay Cutler his first start in the NFL and, in the process, hijack his own team's season.
Why they can win it all: The Seahawks do have a puncher's chance if they arrive in Miami: They went toe-to-toe with San Diego on Christmas Eve, while keeping Superman LaDainian Tomlinson out of the end zone, before falling 20-17.
Why they can't win it all: Seattle's defense surrenders 21.3 PPG, while its offense scores just 20.9 PPG. These guys simply aren't good enough to reasonably foresee a scenario in which they win four games against quality opponents after beating just one all season.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 2 percent
DALLAS (9-7, No. 5 seed)
Quality wins: (1) Colts
Quality losses: (3) Eagles, Eagles, Saints
Signature game: A Nov. 19 gut-check 21-14 win over the Colts, who entered the game 9-0 and the prohibitive favorite to capture the top seed in the AFC.
Why they can win it all: If Dallas can somehow tiptoe through the gilded pumpkin patch that passes for the NFC playoff tournament without a boo-boo, it has as good a shot as any team of bringing down the Goliath the AFC sends to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the only team in the NFC with a winning record against AFC foes (3-1). Dallas lost its first game of the season at Jacksonville, and then reeled of wins over Tennessee (pre-Vince Young), Houston and, of course, Indy.
Why they can't win it all: Sorry, Billy, only good defensive tuna get to win Super Bowls.
The Cowboys developed a reputation somewhere along the way as a club with a defensive-minded coach and big-name players on the defensive side of the ball. The Cold, Hard Football Facts scream otherwise. In fact, what we have here is the NFC's version of the Colts, who are a team universally proclaimed as the definitive one-dimensional club. Dallas surrendered 350 points this season, while Indy surrendered 360. Dallas scored 425 points this season, while Indy scored 427.
The Cowboys also define "backing into the playoffs," with two straight losses to end the season – including the embarrassing finale against Detroit. And don't forget former "It" boy Tony Romo, whose play has declined precipitously after a hot start that foolishly earned him Pro Bowl honors and fortuitously earned him dates with hot country chanteuses.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 2 percent
N.Y. GIANTS (8-8, No. 6 seed)
Quality wins: (2) Eagles, Cowboys
Quality losses: (6) Colts, Seahawks, Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints
Signature game: After pathetically stumbling through a 1-6 record over the second half of the season, the Giants pulled out a 34-28 win in the season finale at Washington to limp into the playoffs.
Why they can win it all: Believe it or not, the dysfunctional soap opera that is the N.Y. Football Giants is actually the most battle-tested team in the playoffs, having faced eight
quality opponents in the regular season. Sure, they haven't fared well in those eight games (
2-6 record), but it tells us that their 8-8 record is, at the very least, slightly deceptive. One wonders what their record might have looked like had they faced a mere three quality opponents, the number faced by top seeds Chicago and New Orleans. History and Cold, Hard Football Facts tell us that their record might have been a couple games better. Even in the AFC, no playoff team faced more than six quality opponents.
If emotion and karma are your bag, Tiki Barber could become this year's Jerome Bettis: the soon-to-retire future Hall of Fame running back who marches out of the NFL in championship glory. If only the Super Bowl were being played in Virginia.
Why they can't win it all: With all that said, this is easy: The Giants just aren't good enough. They surrendered more points than they scored (355-362), their in-fighting this season played out like an episode of "Married with Children" and – no matter how tough their regular-season schedule might have been – it's simply not practical to expect an 8-8 team to win three straight on the road and then knock off an AFC powerhouse in the Super Bowl.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 1 percent
