The technical difficulties we experienced over the holiday weekend did have one benefit: Our picks didn't suck last week. The site was down for our server upgrade, and we never got a chance to publish our weekly Friday Beer Run, with a six-pack of analysis of Sunday's NFL games.

 

We were able to publish only our Turkey Day picks and our Monday night Gridiron Grid, and we went 3-1 in those four games. Nobody will give us a medal for it, but the .750 performance for the week did stave off what had been a slow, disturbing decline for us this season. We are now 48-35 (.578) picking the toughest and most competitive NFL games each week. We've been distraught over our poor performance, though we have deadened the pain with plenty of hard cider and apple schnapps.

 

It turns out we haven't been that bad. In a year that has been brutal for most pigskin prognosticators, we've fared pretty well considering we don't even bother with the obvious games like Indy-Houston or, this week for example, Detroit-New England.

 

We get an early jump on our Friday Beer Run with this greatly appreciated Thirsty Thursday edition.

 

 

When these AFC North rivals met in Week 9, Baltimore claimed a 26-20 home victory. Having now extended their winning streak to five games, the Ravens can unseat the Bengals and secure the division crown with a victory tonight.

 

Baltimore continues to dominate on D, ranking first in Defensive Hog Index, second in defensive passer rating and fourth in Bendability. In fact, as the Jaws Report revealed this week, Baltimore has the second-best cumulative ranking in our Quality Stats. Its average rank is 6.0 in our six "Stats That Matter." Surprisingly, only New England is better, with an average rank of 5.3.

 

The only category that Cincinnati wins is passing yards per attempt (No. 4 vs. No. 16). The Bengals' biggest weakness is clearly their O-line, which ranks sixth-worst in the Offensive Hog Index.

 

Rain is in the forecast, which may keep the scoring down, and it also favors the power running game of Baltimore.