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Holiday Beer Run
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 22, 2006
We stock up on suds and data a day early this week with our special edition Holiday Beer Run that offers a look at all three Thanksgiving Day NFL games. Hey, what's Thanksgiving without a little (or a lot of) beer? Remember, it's what the Pilgrims drank on that first Turkey Day 385 years ago. (The fact that the Pilgrims were beer drinkers is a great little historical nunchuck to throw in the face of your stupid yuppie brother-in-law when he's patting himself on the back for picking out the perfect chardonnay for the "traditional" holiday meal.)
After we've all sobered up, we'll be back Friday, too, to complete our weekly six-pack of analysis with a look at Sunday's three biggest games.
Of course, if our recent performance is any indication, you're better off throwing your mashed potatoes and gravy against the wall Thursday and deciphering the patterns to make your picks. We're a slightly sub-nifty 45-34 this season (.570) picking each week's biggest games. We've heard Kevin Federline song demos that had a greater chance of success.
While we look only at the marquee games each week in our Beer Run, you can size up the opponents in every game thanks to the Jaws Report, which is compiled by CHFF Football Forum poster Jaws. His reports look at each team through our gridiron kaleidoscope of Quality Stats.
Now, on to the Holiday Beer Run and our picks:
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4-6 |
Overall Record |
2-8 |
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2-1 |
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0-2 |
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78.2 (12) |
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100.6 (31) |
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15.18 YPPA (20) |
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14.32 YPPA (28) |
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18.35 YPPS (28) |
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17.61 YPPS (25) |
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21.67 (24t) |
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22.33 (26) |
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12.67 (11) |
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25.33 (30t) |
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5.34 (27) |
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6.13 (11) |
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-3 |
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+3 |
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39.5 |
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39.5 |
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Joey Harrington might be the most thankful man in football this year. He's escaped from the gridiron hellhole that is Detroit, where he had a 1-3 record in games played on Thanksgiving. Now he returns to his old getting-stomped grounds with the Dolphins, a team he's led to three straight victories – something he never accomplished in Detroit. In fact, in his four years with the Lions, he won consecutive games just twice.
Miami hasn't exactly set the world on fire: They rank in the top half of the league in just two of our Quality Stats. But they have the advantage in virtually every category over the toothless Lions, who are near the bottom of the league in Bendability, Scoreability, Defensive Passer Rating and both Hog Indexes.
Harrington may get an icy reception from a city that never embraced him to begin with. But with momentum and motivation, he should exact some revenge.
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Lions 16
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3-7 |
Overall Record |
6-4 |
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0-6 |
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2-2 |
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93.4 (28) |
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69.7 (5) |
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15.48 YPPA (15) |
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15.20 YPPA (19) |
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19.58 (31) |
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13.68 YPPS (3) |
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21.00 (23) |
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12.33 (8t) |
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24.67 (29) |
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6.67 (2t) |
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4.58 (31) |
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6.91 (6) |
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+11 |
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-11 |
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39 |
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39 |
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Dallas has had little time to celebrate its victory over previously unbeaten Indy. Just four days later, the Cowboys must avoid a letdown against the Buccaneers, who are playing in their first Thanksgiving game ever. Dallas, meanwhile, has hosted a Turkey Day game every year since 1966. (An interesting aside: The first Thanksgiving pro football game in Dallas was hosted by the AFL's Texans in 1960. They would move to Kansas City and become the Chiefs the following season.)
The Cowboys have more than just Thanksgiving Day experience on their side: They have advantages in virtually every single Quality Stat. In fact, few teams in football rate so highly across the board as Dallas. Few teams rate so lowly as Gruden's boys, but the Tampa coach does lead the league in FBPB (F-Bombs Per Game).
Sunday's emotional win may have a hangover effect on the Cowboys, but they should still prevail over the pathetic Bucs.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 17
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7-3 |
Overall Record |
6-4 |
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3-2 |
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2-1 |
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78.3 (13) |
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83.8 (19) |
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21.60 YPPA (2) |
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16.14 YPPA (10) |
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16.77 YPPS (21) |
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14.95 YPPS (9) |
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11.00 (4) |
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19.33 (21) |
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15.00 (12t) |
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19.33 (20) |
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5.77 (18) |
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6.28 (9) |
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pick |
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pick |
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38.5 |
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38.5 |
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The Thanksgiving triple-header concludes with this AFC West showdown, the first live game broadcast by the NFL Network. The league is displaying a bit of respect for history with the Broncos-Chiefs matchup as its new holiday night cap. Kansas City hosted several Thanksgiving games back in its AFL days, and the Broncos were the visitor the last time the holiday game was played in KC, back in 1969 (the Chiefs won, 31-17, and ended the season with a win over Minnesota in Super Bowl IV).
Both teams are playoff hopefuls here in 2006 but trail San Diego in the division, so the rivalry has added significance this season. The Broncos won the first meeting between these two teams, 9-6, back in Week 2.
The Chiefs continue to be one of the most volatile and inconsistent teams in football, a trait which has defined them for most of the 21st century. The Broncos also remain well-defined: They beat you with one of the most consistently strong ground attacks in NFL history. The Denver defense has fallen off drastically since its remarkable start (44 points allowed in the first six games; 102 in the four games since), but it remains remarkably adept at keeping teams out of the end zone, as evidenced by its No. 2 spot on the Bendability Index.
Ultimately, this game will be won at the point of attack, and Denver has the advantage on both lines.
Prediction: Broncos 23, Chiefs 20
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