Pigskin assassins
Cold, Hard Football Facts for February 8, 2005

Turnovers are ruthless little assassins lurking on the sidelines, waiting to poison hopes, slash dreams and suffocate teams each time 22 men step on the gridiron. Simply put, turnovers kill. It's the biggest lesson of the 2004 playoffs. It's the biggest lesson of NFL postseason history.

The ability to dodge turnovers is what makes Tom Brady the greatest winner in NFL postseason history. It's what makes one quarterback after another limp away loser after playing the Patriots.

We turned to the Gil Grissom of gridiron Crime Scene Investigation, the Cold, Hard Football Facts, to piece together a criminal profile of this assassin called turnovers. They found a perfect case study in New England's Super Bowl-winning playoff run this year.

• In the divisional round, NFL MVP Peyton Manning tossed zero touchdowns and one interception. Brady threw one touchdown and zero interceptions. Final score: New England 20, Indy 3.

• In the AFC title game, NFL Rookie of the Year Ben Roethlisberger matched Brady with two touchdown tosses. But he threw three interceptions. Brady threw zero. Final score: New England 41, Pittsburgh 29.

• In Super Bowl XXXIX, Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb tossed three touchdown passes, to just two for Brady. But he executed his team's title hopes with three interceptions. Brady threw zero. Final score: New England 24, Philly 21.

It's no coincidence that the two greatest winners in postseason history, Brady and Bart Starr, were also the most careful with the ball. Brady has thrown just three interceptions in 304 postseason pass attempts. That's an absolutely ridiculous rate of one interception every 101.3 pass attempts over a span of nine games against the best teams in the league.

Starr also threw just three interceptions in his postseason career, while attempting 213 passes. That's a ridiculous rate of one interception every 71.0 pass attempts.

(To get an idea of how these numbers compare historically, consider that Manning in 2004, in the greatest statistical season by a quarterback in NFL history, tossed one interception every 49.7 pass attempts.)

To put their deft ball-handling another way, Brady throws interceptions on 0.99 percent of his postseason pass attempts – yes, less than 1 percent. Starr threw interceptions on just 1.4 percent of his pass attempts. And, yes, in the history of postseason quarterbacking, Brady and Starr rank No. 1 and No. 2 with the lowest interception rates.

It's what makes Brady (9-0) and Starr (9-1) the most successful postseason quarterbacks in NFL history. It's what makes more productive regular season quarterbacks turn into rotting postseason pumpkins.

Consider the sad tale of Dan Marino, who went 8-10 in his postseason career. He was 7-1 in games in which he threw one interception or less. He was 1-9 in games in which he threw two or more interceptions. Time and again Miami's postseason hopes were snuffed not by a shaky defense or impotent ground game, but by Marino interceptions.

Starr and Brady didn't have the eye-popping total passing yards of quarterbacks like a Marino or a Manning. But history shows that caring for the ball is far more important than throwing for 350 yards. Just ask McNabb. He threw for 357 yards in Super Bowl XXXIX. He also threw three interceptions. McNabb lost.

When you look at Brady's steely postseason proficiency, it's hard to believe that just three weeks ago some people were saying that Manning was a better quarterback. Of course, the name Brady comes up in a different kind of debate these days. Who are the best postseason quarterbacks in NFL history? No other contemporary quarterback finds his name on the list.

As "pundit" Sean Salisbury said on ESPN's Super Bowl postgame show, "If I had one game to win I might take Brady over No. 16 in San Francisco."

But that's a debate to tackle at another time. Maybe it will come up at the Tom Brady Hall of Fame induction ceremony.

Again, the 2004-05 playoffs provided a perfect case study.

In the divisional round, the Patriots faced Manning after a season in which he tossed a record 49 touchdowns, threw just 10 interceptions and set another NFL single-season record with a 121.1 passer rating.

Against New England, Manning sniffed the goal line just twice. One end-zone pass hit New England defender Asante Samuel in the hands. He dropped the ball, and Indy settled for a field goal. Manning's one other attempt at a touchdown pass was intercepted in the end zone.

In the AFC title game, the Patriots faced a quarterback, Roethlisberger, who set rookie records for victories and consecutive victories and who had guided the Steelers on a 15-game win streak. Roethlisberger tossed 11 interceptions in the regular season, or one every 26.8 pass attempts.

Against New England, Roethlisberger was picked off three times in just 24 attempts.

In the Super Bowl, the Patriots faced McNabb who was coming off the best season of his career. It was a season in which McNabb became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw more than 30 touchdown passes (31) and fewer than 10 interceptions (eight).

Against New England, McNabb was picked off three times in 51 pass attempts – once at the goal line and twice in the fourth quarter, including an INT in the game's final minute that killed Philly's comeback attempt. McNabb also tossed a fourth interception in the end zone that was overturned by a New England penalty.

Brady's postseason brilliance, in other words, is magnified when you consider that the game's best regular-season quarterbacks implode against the New England defense.

Against Indy, Harrison nailed shut the coffin of another morbid Manning postseason performance with an end-zone interception. He also forced one fumble.

Against Pittsburgh, Harrison stuck an ice pick through the heart of Steelers Country when he returned an interception 87 yards for a touchdown that gave the Patriots a 24-3 halftime lead.

Harrison's gridiron coup de main came in the Super Bowl. Harrison picked off two McNabb passes, including the quarterback's final attempt at the end of the game. His first interception was a leaping swan dive of a catch near the goal line. Harrison was shaken up on the play. But he returned to the field and, on Philly's next drive, Harrison helped force a fumble when he held up Philly tight end L.J. Smith.

Deion Branch certainly did his part to earn Super Bowl MVP honors. He was brilliant with 11 catches and now has 21 receptions in two Super Bowls. In fact, after just two games, Branch is third on the all-time Super Bowl reception list behind Jerry Rice and Andre Reed.

But our vote would have gone to Rodney Harrison, the player who signed his name on Philly's Super Bowl death certificate.

After watching Harrison perform in the playoffs, it's hard to believe he wasn't voted onto the Pro Bowl team. In fact, you could argue that no player in the history of Pro Bowl voting got jobbed worse than Harrison did this year. But maybe he'll get the last laugh when he counts his Super Bowl rings and the notches carved on his belt for every team he's buried in the graveyard of postseason has-beens.

New England receiver David Patten, meanwhile, was a non-factor. In fact, he alligator-armed and dropped the one pass thrown his way. But in a postgame interview he said, "I didn't have a catch tonight. But when Branch stepped on the (MVP) podium, it was like all of us (receivers) did."