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Friday Beer Run: Week 5
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 6, 2006

By the Cold, Hard Football Facts staff
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts had their worst showing of the season last week, picking just 4 of 7 games accurately.
 
However, our overall record is 20-10 (.667) this season. The Las Vegas favorites have gone 17-12 (with one pick 'em, .583) in those same 30 games.
 
Our performance is very respectable when you remember that we typically pick only the league's toughest and most competitive games each week. So, while we really want to break down the big Detroit at Minnesota game, we don't think you need the Cold, Hard Football Facts to tell you that the Vikings are the better team.
 
We do, however, stack up Miami-New England this week, which also seems like an impending blowout. We do so if only because it's a divisional matchup, and the Patriots always struggle against the Dolphins. Remember back in 2004, the 12-1 Patriots lost to the 2-11 Dolphins. The Dolphins lead the all-time series by a wide margin, 46-32 (.590).
 
We're also intrigued by the "pundits" on this one. Just a week ago, they told us New England had no chance of beating Cincinnati. Suddenly, these very same people tell us New England has no chance of losing to Miami. Short-term memory loss is a particular gift of the pigskin "pundits," and this sudden U-turn of analysis is a prime example. A feeble team gasping the last breaths of dynasty has suddenly turned into an unstoppable juggernaut. The truth, of course, lies somewhere in the middle ... somewhere in the neighborhood of the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
 
Our picks are found here each week in our "Friday Beer Run," where we break down a six-pack of the league's most intriguing matchups using our all-important Quality Stats. We also preview each week's Monday night game on Monday morning.
 
Teams
2-2
Overall Record
1-2
0-1 [5-5]
1-2 [4-5]
93.5 (24)
93.6 (25)
13.67 YPPA (26)
12.08 YPPA (30)
15.99 YPPS (15)
14.49 YPPS (8)
6.00 (2)
16.67 (19t)
7.30 (3)
6.80 (8)
+4.5
-4.5
45.5
45.5
 
This matchup of NFC East rivals won't get the same attention as the other one this week (Dallas-Philly, see below), but it is no less important to the divisional race. The Giants had a bye last week, giving them ample time to address getting "outplayed and outcoached" (according to Jeremy Shockey), as well as being scored upon at will (third-worst in Bendability).
 
Thanks to playmaking wideout Santana Moss and the protection of a line that ranks second in the Hog Index, grizzled QB Mark Brunell has experienced a renaissance. He has guided the Redskins to two straight wins and to the No. 3 spot in passing yards per attempt, behind only Chicago and Philly. However, the Giants have been more battle-tested: Their three opponents so far this season are a combined 10-2 (Indy, Philly and Seattle).
 
Both air attacks should be firing, but the last shot will likely be New York's.
 
Prediction: Giants 31, Redskins 27
 
Teams
2-1
Overall Record
3-1
0-0 [4-5]
0-0 [2-8]
65.0 (6)
83.7 (20)
16.27 YPPA (17)
18.56 YPPA (8)
12.20 YPPS (2)
14.48 YPPS (9)
12.33 (7t)
12.67 (9)
6.84 (7)
7.71 (2)
+2
-2
44
44
 
In a little-publicized storyline, this game features a wide receiver going against his old team. The fella's name is Terrell Owens, and he apparently left Philadelphia under acrimonious circumstances of some sort. He has quietly contributed to Dallas's 2-1 start with little attention or fanfare.
 
There's a lot on the line in this NFC East clash, as the winner will stand alone atop the division. Both teams have been extremely solid in our Quality Stats, each ranking in the top 10 in four out of five key categories.
 
Although the reception will be icy (Philly fans won't be yelling "Drew" or showering the visitors with confetti), T.O. may get the last laugh.
 
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 24
 
Teams
1-3
Overall Record
3-1
0-0 [4-3]
1-1 [3-6]
93.8 (27)
89.8 (21)
15.56 YPPA (21)
19.63 YPPA (7)
22.31 YPPS (29)
16.72 YPPS (18)
21.33 (25t)
8.33 (3)
5.03 (27)
6.24 (12)
+10
-10
37.5
37.5
 
When the schedule came out, this had the makings of a showdown between the defending division champ and its biggest challenger. Now, after a loss to hapless Houston, Miami is 1-3 and languishing at the bottom of the AFC East.
 
Ranking in the 20s across all of the key categories, the Dolphins look like a far cry from the team that some "pundits" had going to the Super Bowl. The Patriots, meanwhile, served notice that they're still very much in the title hunt with a thrashing of the Bengals.
 
New England will have to withstand a desperate flurry of punches, but Miami won't be able to deliver a knockout.
 
Prediction: Patriots 24, Dolphins 16
 
Teams
2-2
Overall Record
4-0
0-1 [3-7]
1-0 [3-4]
81.0 (16)
65.6 (7)
18.26 YPPA (9)
35.45 YPPA (1)
16.89 YPPS (19)
 12.34 YPPS (3)
13.33 (12)
10.67 (5)
5.80 (21)
7.99 (1)
+10.5
-10.5
34
34
 
If their demolition of the Seahawks didn't convince you that the Bears are for real, a quick gander at these Quality Stats should. Chicago has claimed the top spot in our Dominant Dozen through an undeniable display of balance across the board.
 
Even with linebacker Takeo Spikes sidelined by a hamstring injury for three straight weeks, the Bills have fielded a stingy defense. By holding Minnesota to 12 points in Sunday's victory, they have risen to ninth in Bendability.
 
Dick Jauron would like nothing better than knocking off the team that canned him, but Chicago is lethal at home.
 
Prediction: Bears 20, Bills 6
 
Teams
2-2
Overall Record
2-2
0-2 [2-8]
1-1 [3-3]
71.0 (10)
69.4 (9)
16.63 YPPA (14)
16.61 YPPA (15)
13.61 YPPS (7)
16.53 YPPS (17)
19.67 (22)
13.00 (10t)
7.24 (4)
6.02 (18)
+7
-7
37
37
 
It has been like a round robin lately: The Jaguars were beaten by the Colts in Week 3, 21-14. The Jets were beaten by the Colts in Week 4, 31-28. Now, the two losing teams face off against each other.
 
In the last meeting, a 26-20 overtime win by Jacksonville in Week 3 of 2005, Chad Pennington tore his rotator cuff on a hit from defensive end Paul Spicer. New York's quarterback has rebounded nicely in 2006, delivering two victories and a fourth-place ranking in passing yards per attempt.
 
With the edge in "Stats That Matter" and revenge as motivation, the Jets could spring the upset.
 
Prediction: Jets 21, Jaguars 20
 
Teams
1-2
Overall Record
2-1
0-1 [4-4]
0-1 [5-6]
74.6 (12)
50.2 (2)
16.41 YPPA (16)
24.04 YPPA (5)
17.92 YPPS (22)
13.28 YPPS (6)
18.00 (21)
2.67 (1)
4.98 (28)
6.72 (9)
+3
-3
37.5
37.5
 
It has been a rough start for the defending champs. The Steelers have lost two of three, and they now must travel across the country to take on a San Diego team that was less than a minute away from being undefeated before falling to Baltimore last week. These two teams had a dramatic matchup last year, with Pittsburgh pulling out a last-minute 24-22 win at San Diego on Monday Night Football.
 
The Chargers are second only to Chicago in dominating the "Stats That Matter," ranking in the top 10 in every category. Conversely, Pittsburgh only cracks the top 15 in defensive passer rating (No. 12), and the team that led the league in passing yards per attempt in 2005 is now fifth from the bottom.
 
Two weeks to prepare will help, but the Steelers might have to be almost perfect to avoid falling to 1-3.
 
Prediction: Chargers 22, Steelers 17

The Cold, Hard Football Facts had their worst showing of the season last week, picking just 4 of 7 games accurately. However, our overall record is 20-10 this season, and we only use the most competitive games each week. The Las Vegas favorites have gone 17-12 (with one pick 'em) in those same 30 games. We grab a six-pack of analysis with this week's Friday Beer Run – and call for a pair of upsets by road underdogs.

East
South
North
West