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Friday Beer Run: Week 3
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 22, 2006

By the Cold, Hard Football Facts staff
 
Any two-bit "pundit" can pick a few NFL games right in a given weekend. But the Cold, Hard Football Facts have been money, posting a 12-4 overall record.
 
We're not just predicting the obvious winners either. Last Sunday, five favorites of more than a touchdown won and covered – the Bengals, Bears, Colts, Ravens and Chargers – and we didn't use any of them. Instead, we focused on the most competitive games.
 
Using our "Gridiron Grids" as a guide, went 5-2 in Week 2, including correctly calling for Jacksonville to upset Pittsburgh on Monday night.
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats serve as the backbone of each game's analysis. These are "Stats That Matter" – stats, in other words, that have a direct correlation to winning football games.
 
This week, our Gridiron Grids reflect the numbers from the first two weeks of the 2006 season. The compilations also include relevant team information from our comprehensive new database provided by The Sports Network.
 
Teams
1-1
Overall Record
1-1
0-0 [2-8]
0-1 [3-6]
52.0 (5)
87.9 (20)
17.15 YPPA (15)
24.04 YPPA (9)
18.25 YPPS (16)
12.45 YPPS (5)
18.0 (20)
18.67 (23)
7.74 (5)
4.50 (29)
+5.5
-5.5
34.5
34.5
 
Both of these AFC East rivals struggled in 2005, but barring a tie, one of them is assured of starting this season 2-1. A year ago, neither team had a winning record past Week 2.
 
Getting points and not allowing them are two major keys to success, and the Bills surprisingly rank in the top 10 in both Scoreability and Bendability. The Jets' biggest asset has been QB Chad Pennington, who has posted back-to-back games of 300 yards passing for the first time in his career and is among the league leaders in passing yards per attempt.
 
In its home opener, highly efficient Buffalo will look to establish the run and should come away with a low-scoring victory.
 
Prediction: Bills 16, Jets 13
 
Teams
2-0
Overall Record
1-1
0-0 [3-4]
0-1 [4-4]
70.3 (9)
62.50 (7)
21.85 YPPA (10)
24.62 YPPA (8)
12.58 YPPS (6)
17.68 YPPS (15)
14.67 (14)
21.00 (25)
6.89 (7)
5.21 (21)
+2
-2
42
42
 
The last time these two teams met, Bengals QB Carson Palmer had his knee shredded by Steelers defensive end Kimo von Oelhoffen (now of the Jets). Pittsburgh went on to win that wild-card game and Super Bowl XL, while the seething Palmer had to endure an arduous rehab.
 
Palmer went on the record this offseason and declared his outright disdain for all things Pittsburgh, which should make this an emotional battle on both sides of the ball.
 
Pittsburgh looked anemic offensively on Monday night, getting shut out by Jacksonville, 9-0. Cincy, on the other hand, has two double-digit victories and ranks in the top 15 in all Stats That Matter.
 
Revenge is a dish best served cold – but the Bengals don't want to wait until their home date on New Year's Eve.
 
Prediction: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
 
Teams
2-0
Overall Record
2-0
0-0 [3-3]
0-0 [5-2]
42.3 (2)
113.6 (30)
28.00 YPPA (6)
16.27 YPPA (17)
20.27 YPPS (22)
12.20 YPPS (3)
11.67 (6)
12.67 (10)
6.41 (11)
8.07 (3)
+7
-7
43.5
43.5
 
With their resounding victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, the Jaguars served notice that they are a legitimate AFC contender. Now they can stake an early claim for the division title by knocking off the team that has won it the last three years.
 
Seemingly always prolific offensively, the Colts are currently third in both Scoreability and passing yards per attempt. But their defense is at the other end of the spectrum, ranking third-worst in defensive passer rating.
 
Beating a third straight tough opponent may be too much to ask of Jacksonville, especially going on the road off a short week.
 
Prediction: Colts 24, Jaguars 17
 
Teams
2-0
Overall Record
2-0
0-0 [3-4]
0-0 [2-5]
71.3 (10)
72.0 (11)
      73.14 YPPA (1)
18.52 YPPA (13)
12.40 YPPS (4)
19.26 YPPS (19)
12.33 (8)
14.33 (13)
9.75 (1)
6.59 (10)
-3
+3
34.5
34.5
 
This early showdown in the NFC North will give the Vikings an idea of have far they have progressed. Their opponents thus far, Washington and Carolina, have a combined record of 0-4, but both of them were playoff teams last year.
 
The Bears are the defending division champs, and they have picked right up where they left off. Their dominance in defensive categories was expected, but no one would have guessed that the Rex Grossman-led offense would be the league's best in passing yards per attempt and passer rating. (For future reference, simply think of YPA as a very convenient way to gauge performance, as opposed to the more-complex passer rating.)
 
Chicago already has two division wins, and it should be able to complete the trifecta in Minnesota.
 
Prediction: Bears 20, Vikings 16
 
Teams
1-1
Overall Record
2-0
0-1 [4-5]
0-0 [3-2]
89.6 (22)
76.5 (15)
15.56 YPPA (21)
31.69 YPPA (5)
16.41 YPPS (14)
20.17 YPPS (21)
12.67 (9)
18.33 (21)
6.65 (9)
5.66 (16)
+3.5
-3.5
44.5
44.5
 
Down 17 points to the Eagles in the fourth quarter, the Giants were in jeopardy of falling to 0-2. But Eli Manning rallied them to a 30-24 overtime win with 371 passing yards, the highest total in the conference this season. (The NFL best belongs to brother Peyton, who had an even 400 against Houston.)
 
For the defending conference champions, the Seahawks have looked very ordinary through their first two games. Thanks to a stingy defense, however, they are fifth in Bendability – their only impressive Quality Stats ranking – and undefeated.
 
In a familiar scenario, a former NFL player and his wife will have a son at quarterback for each team. They will probably get much less face time than Archie and Olivia Manning, but Don and Betsy Hasselbeck should see Matt (the starter for Seattle) prevail over Tim (a backup for New York).
 
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Giants 23
 
Teams
1-1
Overall Record
2-0
0-0 [7-3]
0-0 [3-6]
78.8 (18)
90.3 (24)
24.83 YPPA (7)
16.97 YPPA (15)
30.37 YPPS (28)
15.74 YPPS (11)
15.33 (16)
13.33 (11)
4.52 (28)
6.20 (13)
+6.5
-6.5
39.5
39.5
 
This primetime clash is a rematch of last season's divisional playoff. The Broncos denied the Patriots a chance at a third straight title (and fourth in five years), leading NBC to promote the game as: "Tom Brady and New England face the team that ended their Super Bowl dynasty."
 
The Broncos have been a nemesis for Bill Belichick since his days in Cleveland, when he was winless against them in four tries. Including two losses last season, his career record versus Denver is now 2-8.
 
The Broncos rank 28th in both Scoreability and passing yards per attempt, and Jake Plummer has the league's lowest passer rating (38.6). In a hostile environment against a team looking for revenge, he will have his work cut out for him.
 
Prediction: Patriots 22, Broncos 17

The Cold, Hard Football Facts crew stocks up once again on drink, data and the most accurate gridiron analysis on Planet Pigskin with our Friday Beer Run. We look only at the biggest, toughest and most competitive games each week, yet have still posted a 12-4 record through the first two weeks of the season. Hey, you didn't need us to tell you Indy would romp over Houston last week. Even you're bright enough to figure that out.

East
South
North
West