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Preseason 2005 rankings
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 5, 2005
There are quite a few familiar names at the head of our list, but plenty of surprises on our pre-season Top 10 as well. Jacksonville, Kansas City and Minnesota are each among the teams we feel are looking strong as kickoff of the 2005 season approaches this weekend, while Pittsburgh already looks like it's in trouble. But a lot can change over the next 17 weeks. Sit back, grab a brew or two and enjoy the ride.
Unlike other ranking systems, the Cold, Hard Football Facts put a premium on quality wins*, the single most accurate indicator of teams' relative strength.
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I
New England (0-0; previous, 1) – The loss of both coordinators, along with Bruschi and Johnson, is a major concern. But the Patriots have won more games (34) against better teams (20 quality victories) over the past two seasons than any team in history. They remain the dominant team in football, and favorites to repeat, until someone beats them in a must-win game. |
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II
Philadelphia (0-0; previous, 2) – Sure, TO is a problem, but Andy Reid can overcome distractions and has the record to prove it (71-37, .657). Only Washington's Joe Gibbs (146-75, .661) and Atlanta's second-year man Jim Mora Jr. (12-6, .667) have better records among current coaches. .
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III
Indianapolis (0-0; previous, 4) – The Colts tabbed defenders with their first three draft picks and five of their first six. They then made a big preseason move by signing Pro Bowl DT Corey Simon from Philly. But, for what it's worth, the Colts surrendered a horrendous 143 points on their way to an 0-5 preseason mark.
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IV
N.Y. Jets (0-0; previous, 5) – The Jets surrendered a Super Bowl-worthy 261 points last season, fourth-best in the league and just one more than title-game contenders New England and Philly. They must think they're close: Jets expended their first pick, a second-rounder, on a kicker. Granted, he was the nation's best, Lou Groza award-winner Mike Nugent, and fans hope he can erase the painful memories of Doug Brien.
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V
Jacksonville (0-0; previous, unranked) – The Jaguars were the only team last year with a winning record (4-3) against quality opponents to miss the playoffs. If rookie wideout Matt Jones can give a boost to an offense that was anemic in 2004 (16.3 PPG), the Jags have a champion-caliber defense (17.5 PPG) that will allow them to challenge the Colts for AFC South supremacy.
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VI
Minnesota (0-0; previous, unranked) – Everyone gets healthier once they cut out a cancer, right? The loss of Moss gives potentially explosive players like Burleson (68 catches, 1,008 yards in 2004) and Moore (6.7 yards per rush or catch) a chance to shine. And don't forget Culpepper set an NFL record with 5,123 yards of offense in 2004.
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VII
Denver (0-0; previous, unranked) – Mike Shanahan critics are quick to note he hasn't won a postseason game since the Elway era. But the 10 years under Shanahan have included just one losing season and the second best regular-season record in football (101-59; Green Bay is No. 1 at 109-51). Denver's always a contender.
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VIII
Kansas City (0-0; previous, unranked) – The Chiefs had the best offense in football last year against quality opponents (31.1 PPG) and only Pittsburgh and New England beat more quality teams. With the offseason addition of defenders Surtain, Bell and Knight (after failing to make any defensive moves following the 2003 season), KC's a threat to win the AFC West.
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IX
Pittsburgh (0-0; previous, 3) – The 2004 Steelers were one of seven AFC teams who have won 14 or more games in a season. They join the 1999 Jaguars as they only two that failed to win the Super Bowl. After a 15-1 season, and a nifty 6-1 record against quality opponents, an even bigger letdown may be in store this season. Roethlisburger struggled through the end of the 2004 season. This year he has no Burress, no Bettis and no Staley (both RBs are out at least early this season), and an unhappy Ward.
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X
Atlanta (0-0; previous, 6) – Sure, Atlanta made it to the NFC title game, but they did it during a season in which the NFC was a joke. The NFL's senior circuit went 20-44 against AFC teams last year, the worst record by one conference against another since the 1970 NFL merger. And despite all the hype, Michael Vick accounted for just 17 TDs running and passing, while facing just three quality opponents all year. |
* The Cold, Hard Football Facts define quality wins as any victory against a team that currently possesses a winning record.
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