Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Week 3 2009 Power Rankings

By Jonathan Comey

Cold, Hard Football Facts rank amateur

We use a special formula to assemble our award-winning Power Rankings each week, something so secret and spicy that the great Colonel Sanders is turning over in his grave with envy.

And so, you’ll see here what other rankings fail to produce – an accurate representation of where teams really stand. Not where they should be, or will be, but where they are.

With Week 1, it’s difficult to get a sense of where teams really are – we’re still looking back to last year for facts, and that’s never a good thing. But by Week 2 we let the Cold, Hard Football Facts take over.

In other words, if you have a problem with where your team is ranked, take it up with them. They probably aren’t playing very well.

There have been some big moves this year, but few surprises.

For example, who is going to be this year’s Dolphins? Probably no one. Everyone in our top 15 was at least 7-9 last year, and the highest ranking team that was really bad last year is Cincinnati at No. 18. And the three teams at the bottom are more or less picking up right where they left off – in a bad way.

Of teams that were excellent last year, only Carolina has found its way to the bottom 10. In other words, the seismic shifts that usually happen have yet to occur thus far. But it’s September, a magical time for football fans everywhere except Detroit.

On to the rankings!

1.N.Y. GIANTS (2-0). Last week: 33-31 win at Dallas. The top team in our power rankings for most of 2008 has reclaimed the throne. Giant wideouts Steve Smith and Mario Manningham rank 3^rd and 4^th in receiving yards league-wide; of the top 10 receivers so far, only three were 1,000-yard receivers last year (Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Wayne). The worry for Tom Coughlin? Run defense. The Giants have given up a league-worst six rushing plays of 20 yards or longer.

2. N.Y. JETS (2-0). Last week: 16-9 win vs. New England. The remarkable part about the Jets’ two-game run of bitch-slappery is that they’re not actually getting to the quarterback or forcing turnovers. Matt Schaub and Tom Brady ran for their lives, but only took a combined two sacks and two interceptions in 82 dropbacks. Bonus fact: Leon Washington is on pace for 2,584 all-purpose yards and could challenge the record of 2,690 set by Derrick Mason with Tennessee in 2000.

3. BALTIMORE (2-0). Last week: 31-26 win at San Diego. The offense is a revelation, but the problems in the secondary are troubling. Last year they were No. 1 in the league with a 60.6 Defensive Passer Rating; this year’s team is at 95.9, having given up a league-worst 11 plays of 20 yards or more.

4. NEW ORLEANS (2-0). Last week: 48-22 win at Philadelphia. Even when you figure in sacks, the Saints average 9.5 Passing Yards Per Attempt. In two weeks, they’ll face the Jets, the defensive version of the Saints, surrendering just 4.78 yards per pass attempt – will the opposing forces actually be enough to produce rain in the Superdome?

5. INDIANAPOLIS (2-0). Last week: 27-23 win at Miami. The Colts defense is right on its Super Bowl pace from 2006. Those Colts allowed a league-high 173 rushing YPG and a Gale Sayers-like 5.3 YPA. Through two games, the 2009 Colts allow 176.5 YPG, albeit with a “better” 4.7 YPA mark.

6. MINNESOTA (2-0). Last week: 27-13 win at Detroit. Road trips don’t get much easier than Cleveland and Detroit – less than four total hours of flying time and a combined 4-28 opponent record from 2008. And now it’s two home games against teams with a combined 13-19 record from 2008 (San Fran and Green Bay). At some point, the Vikings will need to average more per pass attempt (league-low 4.18 yards) than they do on the ground (5.4).

7. ATLANTA (2-0). Last week: 28-20 win vs. Carolina. You’d think the addition of Tony Gonzalez would mean more single coverage and better production for WR Roddy White, but it isn’t working out that way so far. He’s been thrown to 20 times this year for a total of 95 yards, a 4.8 yard average that’s about half of his 9.3 yard average from a year ago.

8. PITTSBURGH (1-1). Last week: 17-14 loss at Chicago. Jeff Reed’s two missed field goals cost the Steelers dearly in this one. Reed hadn’t missed two in a game since Week 3 of 2004. Speaking of not so good, RB Willie Parker has averaged less than 3.0 yards a carry in eight of his last 11 games including playoffs.

9. SAN FRANCISCO (2-0). Last week: 23-10 win vs. Seattle. The 49ers have only one reception for more than 20+ yards over two games. No. 1 pick and holdout Michael Crabtree might be a bit full of himself and rookie WRs are notorious slow-starters. But the 49ers sure are being stingy with the wallet for a team that is 2-0 and seems only to be lacking a game-breaking wideout.

10. PHILADELPHIA (1-1). Last week: 48-22 loss to New Orleans. Rookie first-round wideout Jeremy Maclin provides more evidence that first-year receivers are generally a lost cause. He’s caught 2 passes for 9 yards; fellow first-rounders Derrius Heyward Bey and Hakeem Nicks have totaled 18 yards each. Minnesota’s Percy Harvin (9 catches, two TDs) and Tennessee’s Kenny Britt (107 yards) are bucking the trend and contributing.

11. DENVER (2-0). Last week: 27-6 win vs. Cleveland. DC Mike Nolan will get a lot of credit for Denver’s resurgence on defense, and two straight defensive shutdowns is a great achievement for a team that allowed 28 PPG last year. However, over his NFL career, Nolan’s defenses have been average: with five different franchises as a head coach or coordinator, he’s teams have ranked an average of 15.5 in scoring defense.

12. DALLAS (1-1). Last week, 33-31 loss vs. Giants. The Cowboys are 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed (6.4), 29th in first downs allowed (22.5) and 26th in points allowed. Oh, and no sacks. Oh, and no turnovers forced. In other words, maybe the defense isn’t so hot. However, 7.6 yards per play on offense (1st) and an amazing 7.0 YPA (1st) on the ground will mask a lot of problems on the other side of the ball.

13. ARIZONA (1-1). Last week: 31-17 win at Jacksonville. Not only is RB Tim “Reno” Hightower Arizona’s leading receiver with 133 yards, he’s also been thrown to more than anyone else (17). Anyone else think Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin aren’t that cool with this?

14. CHICAGO (1-1). Last week: 17-14 win vs. Pittsburgh. RB Matt Forte’s struggles date back to the end of 2008. Over his last six games, he’s carried the ball 106 times for 310 yards (2.9 YPA) and of his 20 receptions none have gone longer than 14 yards. Not sure why a guy who averaged 3.9 yards a tote last year with 8 TDs was so heavily desired in fantasy football circles.

15. BUFFALO (1-1). Last week: 33-20 win vs. Tampa Bay. The Buffalo secondary pissed off somebody. In Week 1, CB Leodis McKelvin’s lawn was vandalized. In Week 2, S Donte Whitner was robbed of $400,000 in jewelry. And over the two weeks, the Bills have faced back-to-back games where the opposing QB has thrown 50 or more passes (Tom Brady 53, Byron Leftwich 50).

16. SAN DIEGO (1-1). Last week: 31-26 home loss to Baltimore. Including last year’s playoffs, RB Darren Sproles has been held to 64 yards on 30 carries over his last three games. Sounds like he’s been shut down, except for the 17 catches and 258 receiving yards he’s generated in the same three games.

17. NEW ENGLAND (1-1). Last week: 16-9 loss at N.Y. Jets. Tom Brady is looking to the slot – a lot. He threw 16 passes to Wes Welker in the opener and threw 16 more to injury replacement Julian Edelman in Week 2. Between them, they averaged a subpar 5.97 yards per target. In 2007, Welker averaged 8.1 yards per target on a more comfortable 9.1 targets a game.

18. CINCINNATI (1-1). Last week: 31-24 win at Green Bay. Is Carson Palmer any good? The Bengals were last in the NFL at 4.0 yards per play without him last year; they’re up to 5.1 YPP with him this year. Oddball super-obscure bonus fact: the Bengals lead the NFL with 163 punt return yards. In 2007, they had 131 … for the entire season. Bonus fact No. 2: DE Antwan Odom is on track for 56 sacks, and already has as many sacks (7) as he did in his previous 19 games combined.

19. GREEN BAY (1-1). Last week: 31-24 loss vs. Cincinnati. The Packers lead the NFL with a +5 in turnover margin; they’re the only team in the top six that isn’t 2-0.

20. HOUSTON (1-1). Last week: 34-31 win at Tennessee. Don’t get Andre Johnson angry. Since the start of the 2007 season, the week after a bad game has been followed by some pretty good ones. Including Week 2’s bounceback, he’s averaged 116 yards and 1.2 TDs the week after being held under 50 yards.

21. TENNESSEE (0-2). Last week: 34-31 loss vs. Houston. Matt Schaub’s big day (357 yards, no sacks) against the Titan defense was quite a shock (Schock?). The Titans ahd allowed 300 or more net passing yards only once in each of the last two seasons (Ben Roethlisberger in 2008, Peyton Manning in 2007).

22. SEATTLE (1-1). Last week: 23-10 loss at San Francisco. The Seahawks are a mediocre 1-1, in keeping with their franchise history. Excluding strike years, since the NFL expanded to 16 games (two years after Seattle’s inception), the Seahawks have been between 7-9 and 9-7 in 17 of 29 seasons. Perhaps they should adopt a new slogan – The Seattle Seahawks: We ARE Parity!

23. WASHINGTON (1-1). Last week: 9-7 win vs. St. Louis. How does a team manage to face first-and-goal four times and not score a single touchdown? We’re not sure, but it would go a long way to explain Jim Zorn’s approval rating by fans at ESPN.com of 16 percent – AFTER A WIN! The next worst approval rating after a win in Week 2: Brad Childress, 64 percent.

24. MIAMI (0-2). Last week: 27-23 loss vs. Indianapolis. Last year’s Dolphins lived by the turnover (+17, best in the NFL). This year’s team is dying from them (-5, tied for worst in the NFL).

25. OAKLAND (1-1). Last week: 13-10 win at Kansas City. JaMarcus Russell’s 29.2 completion percentage in a road win was bad but not historic. Just last year, Jake Delhomme completed 25.9 percent of his passes – and FOUR PICKS! – but the Panthers still won … at Oakland.

26. CAROLINA (0-2). Last week: 28-20 loss at Atlanta. The Panthers are just a tad bit two-dimensional on offense. The tailback combo of Williams/Stewart and WR Steve Smith have combined for 492 of the team’s 676 yards from scrimmage – that’s 73 percent of the offense from two of the five skill positions. Last year, that trio was responsible for 69.5 percent of the offense.

27. JACKSONVILLE (0-2). Last week: 31-16 loss vs. Arizona. So far this season, the Jaguars have held a lead for five minutes and 19 seconds out of a possible 120 minutes. Not what you want when you’re a ball-control offense.

28. KANSAS CITY (0-2). Last week: 13-10 loss vs. Oakland. You don’t really lump the Chiefs in with the Lions for futility, but here’s a jarring stat for you: over its last 27 regular-season games, Kansas City is 2-25 – a game better than Detroit at 1-26. In today’s NFL, where everyone spends the same amount of money, how does that happen? During that run, the Chiefs have gone 0-10 in games decided by five points or fewer.

29. TAMPA BAY (0-2). Last week: 33-20 loss at Buffalo. While former defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin was holding Florida to 23 points and 323 yards as the University of Tennessee’s DC last weekend, his old Bucs surrendered 33 points and 438 yards to a sub-standard Buffalo offense. Yes, Monte is missed.

30. CLEVELAND (0-2). Last week: 27-6 loss at Denver. The Brady Quinn Era hasn’t been so hot in Cleveland. A 3-for-12 performance on third down in Week 1 was followed by a 3-for-14 performance on third down in Week 2. By Week 17, using basic math theory, we can expect the Browns to be 3-for-42 on third downs. In his last four starts, Quinn has posted passer ratings of 55.9, 21.3, 74.1 and 58.7.

31. ST. LOUIS (0-2). Last week: 9-7 loss at Washington. How bad is the Rams offense? Kicker Josh Brown has scored one point in two games.

32. DETROIT (0-2). Last week: 27-13 home loss vs. Minnesota. When the Lions allowed surrendered a 110.9 Defensive Passer Rating and 68.4 completion percentage last year, it was the worst season ever by a pass defense. So they cleaned house, brought in a new coach and news guys … and this year it’s a 134.9 Defensive Passer Rating and 80.6 completion percentage. That’s why they’re the Lions, folks.