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The NFL's Top 10 in Week 16
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 22, 2004

The Cold, Hard Football Facts have digested all the data from the first 15 weeks of the season and offer the most accurate Power Rankings in football. Unlike other systems, the Cold, Hard Football Facts put a premium on quality wins*, the single most accurate indicator of teams' relative strength. But remember, this is the NFL. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
 
I
Pittsburgh (13-1; last week, 2) - The Steelers have the No. 3 ground attack in football and you can credit their persistence: Pittsburgh is tied for just 18th in average per carry (4.0 yards) with New England and Dallas.
 
II
New England (12-2; last week, 1) - The Patriots were humiliated on Monday Night Football - just their third post-November loss in the Brady era - but don't let that overshadow a 27-2 record since October 2003. Nobody in the NFL wins when they
turn over the ball four times in a game.
 
III
San Diego (11-3; last week, 4) - Chargers' unheralded defense, led by LB Donnie Edwards who was
douched in the Pro Bowl selection process, has surrendered just 41 points in December, but we'll know more about them Sunday after their showdown with Indianapolis.
 
IV
Indy (11-3; last week, 5) - An easy schedule has taken a nasty turn this month, but the Colts came through last week with a 20-10 victory over Baltimore. The offense, however, fell off its record-setting scoring pace. To tie the record (556 points) the Colts must average 41 points in their final two games.
 
V
N.Y. Jets (10-4; last week, 9) - The Jets might have picked the wrong year to field one of the best teams in their history. They can tie a team record with 12 victories, but to make the Super Bowl they'll be forced to play three postseason road games. The Jets have won 11 or more games just four times since their founding in 1960.
   
VI
Philadelphia (13-1; last week. 3) - The Eagles top the NFL with nine Pro Bowlers, but the one who was supposed to put them over the top will miss the playoffs. Even with Owens, the Eagles have struggled against all three AFC opponents this year. We believe with the loss of Owens no fewer than five AFC teams can beat Philly in the Super Bowl.
 
VII
Buffalo (8-6; unchanged) - We've been on the Buffalo bandwagon since moving them into our Power Rankings
three weeks ago, when they were just 5-6. They need help to make the playoffs, but even a single victory will be a triumph of sorts for Bledsoe: his first winning season since 1998.
 
VIII
Atlanta (11-3; last week, 6) - Falcons fans feel disrespected. But no team has ever made a Super Bowl with a point differential (+18) as small as Atlanta's.
 
IX
Baltimore (8-6; last week, 8) - The Ravens have a chance to sweep Pittsburgh Sunday, but even a second victory against team that's 13-0 against everyone else will probably mean little come playoff time: No team has ever made a Super Bowl with an offense as weak as Baltimore's.
 
X
Miami (3-11; last week, unranked) - A team that's been defined by late-season collapses over the past 10 years or so made up for some of it by humiliating the defending Super Bowl champs on Monday Night Football with a last-minute comeback. We've decided to give them a taste of the Top X as a reward.

Falling out of the top X: Denver

* The Cold, Hard Football Facts define quality wins as any victory against a team that currently possesses a winning record.

 

 


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