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The NFL's Top 10 in Week 14
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 8, 2004
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have digested all the data from the first 13 weeks of the season and offer the most accurate Power Rankings in football. Unlike other systems, the Cold, Hard Football Facts put a premium on quality wins*, the single most accurate indicator of teams' relative strength. But remember, this is the NFL. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
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I
New England (11-1; unchanged) – Since losing to Pittsburgh, the Patriots have rolled over five straight opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game. Three of the five victims are potential playoff teams. It's New England's greatest period of domination since its rise to elite status in 2001. |
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II
Pittsburgh (11-1; unchanged) – Did the Steelers peak with back-to-back home wins over New England and Philly? Since then, they've beat 3-9 Cleveland, 6-6 Cincinnati, 4-8 Washington and 6-6 Jacksonville by an average of 7.25 points per game. But Roethlisberger is 3-0 in games decided by less than a touchdown. |
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III
Philadelphia (11-1; unchanged) – Like New England, the Eagles have rebounded impressively since their loss at Pittsburgh. They've outscored their four most recent opponents by a combined 101 points and have won each contest by at least three touchdowns. |
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IV
San Diego (9-3; unchanged) – If Chargers GM A.J. Smith had heeded the wisdom of Mr. Miagi ("Patience, Daniel-son") he might have anticipated Brees' emergence and drafted someone like wideout Larry Fitzgerald. Instead, he's stuck with a cap-sapping quarterback conundrum even as Brees has boosted his passer rating from 67.5 in 2003 to 103.1 this season. |
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V
Indianapolis (9-3; unchanged) – The league changed the rules to satisfy poster-boy Manning, who averages a TD pass every 16 minutes of game time. Instead of complaining to the league in the offseason, the Colts would have been better served shoring up a defense whose points-per-game allowed has got worse each season since 2002. |
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VI
New York Jets (9-3; last week, 7) – The Jets have a formula for postseason success: the stingiest defense (14.6 points per game) and the third best running attack in football. New York even proved it could survive without Pennington. But AFC playoffs will be a minefield of powerhouses. |
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VII
Buffalo (6-6; last week, 10) - Most "pundits," including the Cold, Hard Football Facts, wrote Bledsoe's eulogy after a drubbing in New England. In three wins since, Bledsoe has posted a 100.8 passer rating and has a 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio. The Bills also boast the league's 4th ranked defense and are 5-1 since Halloween. |
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VIII
Atlanta (9-3; last week, 6) – What happens when you throw two picks, turn the ball over multiple times in the red zone and get shut out by the 5-7 Buccaneers? You fall in the rankings and get exposed as a pretender. After a -4 performance last week, the Falcons are dead even in the giveaway/takeaway ratio. |
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IX
Green Bay (7-5; last week, 7) – The Packers were on a six-game streak playing second-rate opponents. Their many flaws – including the league's 30th ranked pass defense and 27th ranked total defense – were stripped naked by the Eagles last week. The sad part is that Green Bay could earn a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. |
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X
Cincinnati (6-6; last week, unranked) – The Bungles made it. Since a narrow five-point loss to Pittsburgh, Carson Palmer has posted a 118.3 passer rating while engineering back-to-back victories. Cincinnati has a shot at the final AFC playoff spot, but the schedule makers have placed the Patriots and Eagles in the way. |
Falling out of top 10: Baltimore
* The Cold, Hard Football Facts define quality wins as any victory against a team that currently possesses a winning record.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts X from XXXII list is compiled by contributor Robert Glickler.
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