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The NFL's Top 10 in Week 13
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 1, 2004

The Cold, Hard Football Facts have digested all the data from the first 12 weeks of the season and offer the most accurate Power Rankings in football. Unlike other systems, the Cold, Hard Football Facts put a premium on quality wins*, the single most accurate indicator of teams' relative strength. But remember, this is the NFL. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

I
New England (10-1; last week, 2) ? Pats get bumped up because they have lost just two games in December, January and February in the Brady era and because they can steal the AFC?s No. 1 seed with an easier remaining schedule than Pittsburgh (.345 opponent winning percentage to .564).
II
Pittsburgh (10-1; last week, 1) ? Comparing Roethlisberger to Brady in 2001 has become trendy. Tony Eason in 1985 is a better comparison. Eason averaged 19 attempts per game and leaned on a great ground game to win the AFC. Roethlisberger averages just 21 attempts per game and leans on league?s No. 2 rushing attack.
III
Philly (10-1; unchanged) ? Being the best in the NFC probably won?t cut it come Feb. 6. The NFC is 18-32 versus AFC opponents. Philly has struggled, too, beating Cleveland in OT, Baltimore by five, and losing badly to Pittsburgh. They host AFC?s Cincinnati last week of the season with Atlanta breathing down their neck. Oh yeah, there?s a showdown with surging Green Bay Sunday.
IV
San Diego (8-3; unchanged) ? Brees is getting all the pub and with a 108.0 passer rating it?s certainly deserved. But balance is the key to the offense. Chargers have 352 rushing attempts and 332 passing attempts.
V
Indy (8-3; last week, 6) ? Manning?s 10 touchdown passes in five-days overshadowed James? 309 rushing yards and 6.7 yards per carry average. From Sunday afternoon to Thursday afternoon, Manning spent just six hours on the field but threw an average of one TD pass every 6.6 waking hours
VI
Atlanta (9-2, last week, 5) ? Vick (709 yards) and Dunn (642) are the most lethal one-two running combination in the NFL, besting Pittsburgh?s Staley (707) and Bettis (610) by a mere 34 yards. Falcons have squeaked out 9-2 record despite scoring just 1.6 points per game more than they allow.
VII
N.Y. Jets (8-3; last week, 10) ? Jets have the No. 3 scoring D in football, just four points behind Philly and Baltimore. But they have a tenuous hold on a wildcard spot and now face the toughest part of the schedule: remaining opponents are a combined 36-19.
VIII
Green Bay (7-4; last week, 9) ? Packers have surged to six straight behind rejuvenated Favre and the third best scoring offense in football. Favre is posting his best passer rating (95.2) since his 39-touchdown, Super Bowl-winning 1996 season (95.8).
IX
Baltimore (7-4; last week, 8) ? No need to put a bag over your head following a shorthanded loss in the slop at New England. But Ravens should be embarrassed by time of possession (28:37, 25th) and inability to convert on third down (32.5 percent, 26th) and fourth down (12.5 percent, 31st).
X
Buffalo ? (5-6; last week, unranked) ? Bills have won four of last five, with only loss at New England. Easy remaining schedule (next four opponents are Miami, Cleveland, Cinci and San Fran before closing with Pittsburgh) gives Buffalo outside shot at wildcard slot.

* The Cold, Hard Football Facts define quality wins as any victory against a team that currently possesses a winning record.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts X from XXXII list is compiled by contributor Robert Glickler.

 

 


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