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The NFL's Top 10 in Week 8
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 27, 2004
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have digested all the data from the first eight weeks of the season and offer the most accurate Power Rankings in football. Unlike other systems, the Cold, Hard Football Facts put a premium on quality wins*, the single most accurate indicator of teams' relative strength. But remember, this is the NFL. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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I
New England (6-0; unchanged) - The "pundits" say the Patriots win a lot of close games. But New England has handed five of six opponents their biggest loss of the season and the Jets their only loss. NY scored their only points against the Patriots with Richard Seymour and Ty Warren sitting on the sideline for much of the drive.
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II
Minnesota (5-1; last week, 5) - Sunday's cakewalk over Tennessee was the Vikes' first game without Randy Moss, who made a token, two-play appearance. The "pundits" failed to mention that Minnesota has also played most of the season without Michael Bennett (five DNPs, one carry, 0 yards) and Onterrio Smith (two starts, three appearances). |
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III
Philadelphia (6-0; last week, 2) - The Eagles charged to a 5-0 record beating up on NFC teams. Against their first opponent from the power-packed AFC, 3-4 Cleveland, they were pushed to overtime and surrendered 394 yards. The Eagles give up a non-champion caliber 340.2 YPG, 20th in the league. |
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IV
Pittsburgh (5-1; last week, 8) - The Steelers have no quality wins and have beat opponents with a combined 10-23 record. Up next are 6-0 New England and 6-0 Philadelphia. History is stacked against Ben Roethlisberger, too: Even among the historic QB class of 1983, not one was able to win his first five starts. |
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V
Indianapolis (4-2; last week, 3) - "Pundits" tout the Colts as a speedy team home in the dome. But they have a 2-1 home record in 2004 after a 5-3 home campaign (and 7-1 road record) in 2003. Compare that with the Patriots, who have been bested in just four home games since a loss to the Jets in Week Two 2001. |
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VI
Jacksonville (5-2; last week, unranked) - Jags generated just 20 points in their first two games, but scoring production has climbed each week since. So has Byron Leftwich's production: He averaged 130.3 passing yards per game in first two weeks, but more than 318 per game over last five. |
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VII
New York Giants (4-2; last week, 5) - The Giants suffered a loss at home to Detroit but play sound defense (16.7 PPG, 6th in the NFL) and are tied for second in the league with a +9 turnover margin. With 1.3 interceptions per game, the Giants defense has doubled its average output over last year. |
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VIII
New York Jets (5-1; last week, 6) - The Jets cruised their first five weeks without a quality win while facing one of the easiest schedules in football, then lost to New England. Now comes the hard part: Six of New York's final 10 opponents are .500 or better. On the bright side, the Jets kept Pennington clean, shutting out the Patriots' prolific sack attack. |
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IX
Detroit (4-2; last week, unranked) - The Lions return to the X from XXXII rankings courtesy of their second straight quality win on the road and a solid defense that sacks opposing QBs 3.7 times per game. But the offense is inept. Lions rank 29th in passing YPG (160.7), 31st in rushing YPG (82.8) and dead last (32nd) in total offense. |
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X
Denver (5-1; last week, 7) - The Cold, Hard Football Facts predicted a Denver swoon last week. It may have begun with an embarrassing Monday Night loss to Cincinnati. Plummer's picks hurt and he throws them at a 3.1 percent clip. During his dreadful final season in Arizona, he tossed INTs 3.7 percent of the time. |
Dropped from last week: Seattle, St. Louis
* The Cold, Hard Football Facts define quality wins as any victory against a team that currently possesses a winning record.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts X from XXXII list is compiled by contributor Robert Glickler.
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