By Cold, Hard Football Facts contributor Jonathan Comey
Summer seems like it was just here. We would spend beautiful, sun-drenched days in our basement, sweating through NFL data and wondering how it would all work out come fall.
The only sure thing? It would be different than anyone could imagine.
And that turned out to be the case. Just five teams return from the 2005 playoffs: New England, Indy, Seattle, Chicago and the N.Y. Giants. And nobody, not even the Cold, Hard Football Facts, figured San Diego would cruise through the regular season with the best record in football. (Remember, according to the folks at Salon.com,
we were better than any outlet in America last year at predicting playoff teams.)
However, this doesn’t mean that last year’s playoff crop fell apart – Denver, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Carolina were all alive going into Week 17, and the Steelers finished at 8-8. Only Washington and Tampa Bay went into the tank.
And while just five of
our preseason Dominant Dozen wound up there in the final analysis, the “surprise teams” generally came from the middle class, not the bottom. The Chargers, Ravens and Eagles all looked ready to contend, and only the Saints (24th) and Jets (26th) were true shockers.
Not so coincidentally, our final Dominant Dozen consists of the 12 playoff teams. While you could make a case that the AFC also-rans were better than most of the NFC playoff field, there are only 12 teams that matter anymore.
THE DOMINANT DOZEN:
1. SAN DIEGO (previous rank: same; preseason rank: 14)
Last week: The Chargers closed out the best season in franchise history at 14-2, giving Marty Schottenheimer his 200th win in the process.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Between them, tailbacks LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner had 2,317 yards, 30 TDs and a 5.41 average.
Next: First-round bye. It’s the Chargers’ first No. 1 seed since 1979, when they lost their postseason opener to Houston.
2. BALTIMORE (previous rank: same; preseason rank: 19)
Last week: In beating Buffalo 19-7, the Ravens allowed 14 points or fewer for the 11th time this season. The 2000 Super Bowl-winning Ravens achieved that feat 12 times.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: After throwing seven picks in his first six games and raising questions about his effectiveness, QB Steve McNair threw just five more in the Ravens’ last 10 games.
Next: First-round bye.
3. NEW ENGLAND (previous rank: same; preseason rank: 6)
Last week: Corey Dillon rushed for two touchdowns as the Patriots claimed a 40-23 victory against the red-hot Titans. Dillon has scored 13 TDs all three seasons with New England. He scored 13 TDs just once in his seven years in Cincinnati.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: New England went a so-so 2-3 against
quality opponents, but it was dominant against the almost-quality 8-8 teams (4-0, +80 scoring margin).
Next: vs. N.Y. Jets (Sunday at 1:00 ET). Over 94 games all-time, just 33 points separate the Patriots (2,056) from the Jets (2,023).
4. INDIANAPOLIS (previous rank: 5; preseason rank: 4)
Last week: The Colts beat Miami for their 12th victory, becoming only the second team in NFL history to win 12 or more games in four straight seasons (1992-95 Cowboys).
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Marvin Harrison has averaged 1,402 yards over the last eight seasons, second-best in NFL history behind Jerry Rice, who averaged 1,443 yards from 1988-95.
Next: vs. Kansas City (Saturday at 4:30 ET). In his last four playoff games against teams other than New England, Peyton Manning is 93 of 127 (73.2%) for 1,428 yards, 12 TDs and 1 INT (138.2 rating).
5. CHICAGO (previous rank: 4; preseason rank: 15)
Last week: The Bears looked to make a statement heading into the playoffs. Unfortunately, their statement was, "Oh, sh*t!" Chicago QBs threw five INTs, and the Bears were dominated at home by Green Bay, 26-7.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Bears allowed more points in their last six games (135) than they did in their first 10 (120).
Next: First-round bye.
6. NEW ORLEANS (previous rank: same; preseason rank: 24)
Last week: With “triplets” Jamie Martin (QB), Jamaal Branch (RB) and Jamal Jones (WR) seeing most of the action, the Saints lost a meaningless game at home against Carolina.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Drew Brees finished with a passer rating of 90 or better in 11 of his 16 starts, tying Peyton Manning for the league lead.
Next: First-round bye. It's the only time in franchise history that the Saints have earned one.
7. PHILADELPHIA (previous rank: same; preseason rank: 17)
Last week: Despite resting their regulars, the Eagles registered double-digit wins for the sixth time in seven years with a victory over Atlanta.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Brian Westbrook was second only to Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew with an average of 6.0 yards per touch (running/receiving). Jones-Drew averaged 6.5.
Next: vs. N.Y. Giants (Sunday at 4:30 ET).
8. N.Y. JETS (previous rank: 11; preseason rank: 26)
Last week: The Jets enjoyed a pleasant Week 17, beating the offenseless Raiders at home to make the postseason for the fifth time in nine years.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Taking a page from Bill Belichick’s bend-but-don’t-break philosophy, the Jets finished with the No. 6 scoring defense despite allowing 4.6 yards a carry (27th) and 5,306 yards (20th).
Next: at New England (Sunday at 1:00 ET). Let the mind games begin.
9. KANSAS CITY (previous rank: 14; preseason rank: 7)
Last week: The Chiefs overcame two Trent Green INTs to beat the Jaguars and improbably earn a playoff spot; Green threw eight INTs in his final six games (10 in all of 2005).
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Chiefs finished the season 11th in scoring defense, their best showing since 1997.
Next: at Indianapolis (Saturday at 4:30 ET). The last time Herman Edwards faced the Colts in the playoffs, the final score was Jets 41, Colts 0.
10. SEATTLE (previous rank: 15; preseason rank: 2)
Last week: Sticking with the starters, the Seahawks cruised past Tampa Bay 23-7.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: For the first time since 1996, the Seahawks failed to post a 1,000-yard runner (Shaun Alexander had 896) or receiver (Darrell Jackson had 956).
Next: vs. Dallas (Saturday at 8:00 ET).
11. DALLAS (previous rank: 8; preseason rank: 16)
Last week: Ouch. The Cowboys’ freefall reached a new low with a 39-31 home loss to Detroit.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: How bad was the NFC this year? The Cowboys were the ONLY team in the conference to finish with a winning record against the AFC (3-1).
Next: at Seattle (Saturday at 8:00 ET).
12. N.Y. GIANTS (previous rank: 17; preseason rank: 12)
Last week: Tiki Barber single-handedly got the Giants into the playoffs with his 234-yard rushing effort in Washington. Yup, it looks like there's little left in the tank of the soon-to-be-retired running back.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Giants are in the postseason despite the No. 24 scoring defense (worst of any playoff team) and a quarterback ranked 18th in passer rating (E. Manning, 77.0).
Next: at Philadelphia (Sunday at 4:30 ET).
THE TEPID TWENTY:
13. JACKSONVILLE (8-8, previous rank: 10) – The Jaguars ended up +97 in scoring differential, the second-best for an 8-8 team in NFL history (1988 Bengals, +119).
14. DENVER (9-7, previous rank: 9) – Champ Bailey was second among CBs in solo tackles (74), third in passes defensed (21) and tied for first in INTs (10).
15. CINCINNATI (8-8, previous rank: 13) – Rudi Johnson has averaged 4.06 a carry since Corey Dillon left town in 2003; Dillon has averaged 4.22 a carry in New England.
16. PITTSBURGH (8-8, previous rank: 20) – A .500 finish means that there have only been three losing seasons in Cowher’s 15-year coaching stint.
17. TENNESSEE (8-8, previous rank: 12) – Fearless punt returner Pacman Jones had as many touchdowns (3) as he did fair catches.
18. ST. LOUIS (8-8, previous rank: 19) – QB Bulger’s career completion percentage of 64.4 is better than Young's (64.3), Manning's (64.0) and Montana's (63.2).
19. CAROLINA (8-8, previous rank: 18) – Not special: The Panthers were last in both kickoff return average (19.4) and punt return average (4.6).
20. GREEN BAY (8-8, previous rank: 21) – In fifteen years with the Packers, Brett Favre has only enured one losing season.
21. BUFFALO (7-9, previous rank: 16) – Bills receivers had the fewest drops in the NFL (9), but also the fewest first downs (132).
22. SAN FRANCISCO (7-9, previous rank: 26) – Team effort: 11 different Niners had 40+ tackles, which would lead the league in that category if it were a category.
23. MIAMI (6-10, previous rank: same) – Olindo Mare led the league with 37.5 percent of his kickoffs going for touchbacks.
24. ATLANTA (7-9, previous rank: 22) – Over the last 11 games, RB Dunn averaged 57 yards, 3.3 a carry.
25. WASHINGTON (5-11, previous rank: 24) – Trifecta! The Redskins’ defense was last in INTs (6), fumbles forced (eight) and sacks (19).
26. HOUSTON (6-10, previous rank: 25) – The Texans’ average completed pass traveled 4.19 yards in the air (pre-YAC), lowest in the league.
27. ARIZONA (5-11, previous rank: 28) – Anquan Boldin has had a league-high 323 passes thrown his way the last two seasons.
28. MINNESOTA (6-10, previous rank: 27) – The Vikes had a league-worst 123 penalties.
29. TAMPA BAY (4-12, previous rank: same) – Best thing about Bucs’ 2006 season? It’s over.
30. DETROIT (3-13, previous rank: 31) – QB Kitna led the league with 659 dropbacks.
31. CLEVELAND (4-12, previous rank: 30) – Rookie OLB Wimbley is sixth in the NFL in run stuffs (8.5) and 11th in sacks (11).
32. OAKLAND (2-14, previous rank: same) – Just pick first, baby!
