Dominant Dozen: Week 2 2006
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 12, 2006

By Cold, Hard Football Facts contributor Jonathan Comey

 

If you feel like somebody forgot to wake up the offenses in Week 1 this year, well, your feeling is correct.

 

Over the last 40 years or so, NFL teams have averaged about 20 points a game. In the Dead Ball Era of the early to mid 1970s, the average was in the 17s (17.2 in 1977, the height of the Dead Ball Era). In the offensive 1990s, it was mostly in the 21s and 22s. But 20 points is about the historic norm.

 

The last three Week 1s in the NFL have been pretty average. In 2003, teams averaged 20.15 points per game. In 2004, it was 19.41. In 2005, it dipped again slightly, to 19.21.

 

But this year, thanks to red-zone failures and willing kickers, Week 1 saw an average of just 17.28 points a game. Seven teams failed to score a touchdown and three were shut out entirely. We're talking true Dead Ball Era territory here.

 

It's fitting, in an ironic sort of way, that the top team in our Week 1 Dominant Dozen used its placekicker the way the Football Gods intended – to kick extra points. The Steelers had four touchdowns in their impressive Roethlisberger-less 28-17 home win over the Dolphins, and did nothing to lose their spot atop the football world.

 

Other teams can't say the same. Less thoughtful power rankers would leave their preseason favorites near the top despite opening-week failures, but the humble trolls here at CHFF like to reward actual performance.

 

What a concept.

 

So, five of our preseason Dominant Dozen went careening into the sea of mediocrity, like the cast of Seinfeld after cancellation. They'll have to earn their way back in and prove that their reputation was founded on something other than Ron Jaworski raves and talk-radio ball-washing.

 

And hopefully, for those of us who enjoy actual touchdowns with our buffalo wings and deep-fried turkey, they'll earn their way back with a bang.

 

(As always, the Cold, Hard Football Facts place a premium on Quality Standings when calculating the Dominant Dozen rankings.)

 

1. PITTSBURGH (previous rank: same)

2005 records: 15-5 overall, 8-4 vs. quality opponents (won Super Bowl)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: Charlie Batch's stats (15-25, 209 yds, 3 TDs) were boosted by his 87-yard touchdown bailout to TE Heath Miller. But 38 rushes and the D's two late INTs were the real keys.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Since the NFL turned the Thursday night opener into a home coronation for the defending Super Bowl winners, the champs are 3-0. All three were come-from-behind wins.

 

Next: at Jacksonville (Monday). The Jaguars won last year's matchup on a return of a Tommy Maddox INT in OT; Maddox was last seen selling aluminum siding in Guam.

 

2. INDIANAPOLIS (previous rank: 4)

2005 records: 14-3 overall, 5-3 vs. quality opponents (lost divisional playoffs)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: Hype or no hype, Peyton Manning and the Colts won a tough road game against a 2005 playoff team in an emotional setting. It must be September.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Looking for the next brother-vs.-brother battle? Well, if Eli Manning and CHFF favorite Jared "The Pillsbury Throwboy" Lorenzen were to be injured this weekend, the Giants would send Tim Hasselbeck out at QB ... to take on Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks.

 

Next: vs. Houston. Remember that time the Texans beat Indy? Oh wait, it never happened (0-8 all time).

 

3. SEATTLE (previous rank: 2)

2005 records: 15-4 overall, 5-3 vs. quality opponents (lost Super Bowl)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: The Seattle offense was invisible in a three-point squeaker in Detroit, but allowing six points on the road is nothing to sneeze at ... even when Matt Millen picks the "talent" on the opposing team.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Seahawks also opened the 2001 season with a 9-6 road win, that time at expansion Cleveland. They followed it with a 27-3 loss to the Eagles.

 

Next: vs. Arizona. Seattle will likely need the offense against an Arizona team that scored a week-high 34 points.

 

4. JACKSONVILLE (previous rank: 10)

2005 records: 12-5 overall, 3-4 vs. quality opponents (lost wild-card playoffs)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: The always-underhyped Jaguars beat the overexposed Cowboys, 24-17, in front of a national audience. Jacksonville has covered the spread seven straight times in September.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: 76.7 percent of the Jags' completions went to wideouts last year. Last week, it was 60.9 percent (13/23). RB Fred Taylor, who caught 13 passes in 2005, had six in Week 1 alone.

 

Next: vs. Pittsburgh. When the two teams were AFC Central rivals, they split the season series six out of seven years. The Jags beat the Super Bowl champs in OT last year.

 

5. CINCINNATI (previous rank: 13)

2005 records: 11-6 overall, 3-5 vs. quality opponents (lost wild-card playoffs)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: The Bengals' defense set the tone in an impressive 23-10 win in Kansas City; the Bengals haven't fielded a Top-10 scoring D since 1989.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Cincy broke out to a 4-0 record in 2005 thanks largely to 17 forced turnovers; they forced three Sunday against a Chiefs team that committed just 1.4 per game last year.

 

Next: vs. Cleveland. Bet the over: The last four games between these two have averaged 60 total points.

 

6. CHICAGO (previous rank: 15)

2005 records: 11-6 overall, 3-5 vs. quality opponents (lost divisional playoffs)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: Chicago made Brett Favre look like George Plimpton in "Paper Lion."

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Bears hadn't pitched a shutout since turning in two in 2001; before that, their last shutout was in 1993 (6-0 over Falcons).

 

Next: vs. Detroit. Chicago allowed 0 points on the road in Week 1; Detroit scored 6 at home. Is it possible that the Lions will score negative points? 

 

7. NEW ENGLAND (previous rank: 6)

2005 records: 11-7 overall, 4-7 vs. quality opponents (lost divisional playoffs)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: The Patriots, playing with high school kids at WR (actually Troy Brown and Reche Caldwell), beat scrappy-but-fading Bills on a safety.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: The win was Bill Belichick's 100th in the regular season. In 20 years as an assistant, his teams were 173-135-1.

 

Next: at N.Y. Jets. This rivalry needs a snappy name to replace the "Tuna Bowl." How about the "Probable Mismatch Bowl"?

 

8. BALTIMORE (previous rank: 19)

2005 records: 6-10 overall, 2-7 vs. quality opponents

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: In the surprise of Week 1, the Ravens went on the road to dominate defending NFC South champion Tampa, 27-0. It was Sunday's most lopsided victory.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Baltimore has a long way to go before matching its 2000 Super Bowl season; those Ravens pitched four shutouts (including the opener) and held opponents to 10 points or fewer in 15 of 20 games, counting the playoffs.

 

Next: vs. Oakland. The Ravens haven't faced the Raiders since beating them 16-3 in the 2000 AFC title game.

 

9. SAN DIEGO (previous rank: 14)

2005 records: 9-7 overall, 5-6 vs. quality opponents

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: Their shutout of the Raiders was capped by a great Marty Schottenheimer quote with Oakland deep in San Diego territory late. "Don't let 'em get in the f---ing end zone," he said, pointing at one of his players. They didn't. If only he brought the same intensity to the postseason.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Shades of the 1923 Dayton Triangles: The Chargers ran 48 times and passed just 11. The forward pass was legalized in 1933.

 

Next: vs. Tennessee, followed by a bye week. Thank you, Mr. Schedule Maker.

 

10. ATLANTA (previous rank: 18)

2005 records: 8-8 overall, 2-7 vs. quality opponents (lost wild-card playoffs)

2006 records: 1-0 overall, 0-0 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: The Falcons turned in an impressive road win over Carolina. The oft-criticized Michael Vick has won 62.5 percent of his NFL starts, 8th among active QBs.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Michael Koenen became the first player since Frank Corral of the Rams in 1981 to handle all three kicking jobs. He was 2-4 on field goals, had a 41.8 punting average and put three kickoffs into the end zone. Corral never played in the NFL again after 1981.

 

Next: vs. Tampa Bay. The Falcons lost a pair of three-point decisions to the Bucs in 2005.

 

11. DENVER (previous rank: 3)

2005 records: 14-4 overall, 8-4 vs. quality opponents (lost AFC title game)

2006 records: 0-1 overall, 0-1 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: Denver's punchless loss produced this quote from Jake Plummer on rookie QB Jay Cutler: "I'm sure they will (call for him). They've been calling for him since he got drafted." Ouch.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Plummer's even-year collapse got off to good start with three picks. In 2000, 2002 and 2004, he threw a total of 61 picks; in 2001, 2003 and 2005 he threw a total of 28.

 

Next: vs. Kansas City. The Broncos are 14-2 in their last 16 regular-season home games; the Chiefs are 6-10 in last 16 on road.

 

12. CAROLINA (previous rank: 5)

2005 records: 13-6 overall, 5-5 vs. quality opponents (lost NFC title game)

2006 records: 0-1 overall, 0-1 vs. quality opponents

 

Last week: Their loss to the Falcons was compounded by a season-ending injury to starting LT Travelle Wharton. MLB Dan Morgan suffered his 5th concussion (but he still trails unofficial record holder Wayne Chrebet by four). Since 2002, the Panthers are 30-20 with Steve Smith and 7-11 without him.

 

Cold, Hard Football Facts: Maybe winning the opener is overrated. The 2001 Panthers made history by winning in Week 1 and then losing their last 15.

 

Next: at Minnesota. Steve Smith's hamstring has been voted team captain.

 

 

Best of the Rest:

 

13. N.Y. GIANTS (12) — Fitting that the Manning Bowl had three total punts

14. MIAMI (9) — Dolphins haven't had 25-TD season by QB since Marino in 1994 (30)

15. PHILADELPHIA (17) — Passing game sharp vs. HOU, but Texans allowed 7.51 yards per throw in '05 (31st)

16. ST. LOUIS (20) — Rams' OL solid in all three prongs of the Hog Index, but C McCollum out for season

17. MINNESOTA (22) — 1 sack allowed, no turnovers in win; Daunte who

18. WASHINGTON (8) — Tom Cruise guest of Daniel Snyder; Brunell to star in "Risky Business 2"

19. DALLAS (16) — Bledsoe 13 INTs in his last seven games

20. NEW ORLEANS (24) — Saints ran 40 times Sunday, but only 4 first downs came on the ground (13 by air)

21. KANSAS CITY (7) — Chiefs haven't been Trent Green-less since Elvis (Grbac) left building in 2000

22.  ARIZONA (23) — Nice numbers for fantasy geeks, but D allowed 393 yards to Niners

23.  N.Y. JETS (26) — Pennington's lifetime completion % of 65.5 better than Montana (63.2)

24.  TAMPA BAY (11) — Have scored 10 or fewer points in five of eight including playoffs (two shutouts)

25. BUFFALO (27) — 68 yards in the second half not cutting it in NE

26. DETROIT (29) — RB K. Jones hasn't had 100-yard game since 2004; 35 on Sunday

27. SAN FRANCISCO (30) — Niners lose G L. Allen early, still rush for 5.9 per

28. CLEVELAND (21) — Team nickname is "Browns"

29. HOUSTON (32) — Carr off to good start (102.1 passer rating)

30. TENNESSEE (31) — V. Young one of four reserve QBs to come in off bench (Chiefs' Huard, Raiders' Walter, Bucs' Gradkowski)

31. GREEN BAY (28) — Lambeau Leap could have new meaning for Cheeseheads

32. OAKLAND (25) — During Raiders' shutout loss (2nd ever in Oakland), coach Shell sets unofficial record for silent reflection