The 2008 season proved the year of the unpredictable. If you expected it to happen, it probably didn't.
Two AFC playoff participants from 2007 failed to return in 2008,
one of them a year removed from a perfect regular season (New England)
and the other buried in last place amidst a litany of high hopes
(Jacksonville). Four of the NFC's 2007 postseason teams failed to
return, replaced in part by one team that finished the previous
campaign dead last and dogged by controversy (Atlanta) and another that
hadn't hosted a playoff game in 61 years (Arizona).
The surprises continued on into the second season.
Carolina didn't lose at home in the regular season, but was then
blown out at home in the playoffs. San Diego won its division with an
8-8 record and then won its wildcard game – buoyed in large part by the
fact that it was the first .500 team in history to host a playoff game,
thanks to the dysfunctional playoff system that caused so much
controversy this season.
Both No. 1 seeds (Tennessee, N.Y. Giants) were bounced from the
playoffs without a win, while both No. 6 seeds (Philly and Baltimore)
made it to their respective conference championships. Arizona,
meanwhile, was the biggest surprise of all, winning three straight
playoff games to reach the Super Bowl – after an 88-year history that
included just two postseason victories.
The only predictable outcome came from Pittsburgh – a franchise
synonymous with reaching the playoffs (24 times since 1972) and winning
Super Bowls (a record sixth this year).
What does it all mean?
It means that when next we meet for our 2009 preseason Power Rankings in August, don't pay much attention.
THE DOMINANT DOZEN
1. PITTSBURGH (15-4, previous rank: 5)
Last game: The Steelers beat Arizona in the Super Bowl,
27-23, thanks to one of the most remarkable clutch drives in NFL
history. Any arguments? In CHFF tradition, they remain No. 1 in any and
all rankings until events on the field next season prove otherwise.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Steelers played in a lousy
division (cumulative record of 8-26 vs. Quality Opponents) and will
hardly go down as one of the dominant Super Bowl champions. But they
managed to lead our all-important Defensive Hog Index, with an
unprecedented No. 1 ranking in every category that makes up the
indicator, they also topped our Relativity Index, and they fielded what
was probably the best defense Pittsburgh has produced since the Steel
Curtain.
Team MVP: LB James Harrison
2. ARIZONA (12-8, previous rank: 13)
Last game: A stirring fourth-quarter comeback wasn't quite enough for the Cards, who fell to Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, 27-23.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Arizona finished the season dead last in rushing YPG (73.6) and
31st in rushing YPA
(3.46) but managed 95+ yards on the ground in all three of its playoff
wins en route to the Super Bowl. More importantly, the Cardinals played
shutdown pass-defense in the playoffs after a season in which they
ranked 30th with a 96.9
Defensive Passer Rating.
But when it mattered most, on Pittsburgh's last offensive possession,
they reverted to regular-season form, allowing Big Ben to light them
up.
Team MVP: QB Kurt Warner
3. BALTIMORE (13-6, previous rank: 7)
Last game: The Ravens were game but couldn't extend their playoff run, losing a brutal AFC championship game at Pittsburgh, 23-14.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco
posted a very solid 60 percent completion rate and 80.3 passer rating
in his maiden NFL voyage, but crashed to earth in his first three
playoff games, completing just 44 percent of his throws and tossing
three picks against just one TD.
Team MVP: S Ed Reed
4. TENNESSEE (13-4, previous rank: 2)
Last game: The Titans nearly doubled up the Ravens in total
yards (391-211) and dominated time of possession (34:07-25:53) in their
AFC divisional round matchup, but couldn't hang onto the ball when it
counted, committing three turnovers to Baltimore's one in a 13-10 home
loss.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Kerry Collins played clutch
football in 2008, posting a passer rating of 88.8 in the fourth quarter
and 92.8 when Tennessee trailed by seven points or less (compared with
80.2 overall). His greatest contribution was limiting mistakes in the
passing game: the Titans
suffered a negative pass play on just 4.5 percent of dropbacks – only Peyton Manning and the Colts were better.
Team MVP: Chris Johnson
5. PHILADELPHIA (11-7-1, previous rank: 10)
Last game: The Eagles came back from an 18-point halftime
deficit, scoring 19 straight points to take a 25-24 lead over Arizona,
before succumbing to the powerful Cardinals offense in a 32-25 loss in
the NFC championship game.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: In eight games (including
playoffs) following his benching, Donovan McNabb passed for 2,038 yards
and 14 TDs, likely extending his stay in Philly.
Team MVP: QB Donovan McNabb
6. NEW YORK GIANTS (12-5, previous rank: 1)
Last game: On a windy day in the Meadowlands (is there any
other kind?), the Giants couldn't get their passing game together, with
Eli Manning completing just six passes to wide receivers in a crushing,
23-11 NFC divisional game loss to the Eagles.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Giants were 1-5 in December
and January and Manning failed to throw for more than 200 yards in a
single time over that stretch. Not coincidentally, all six games came
after Plaxico Burress shot himself.
Team MVP: RBs Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward
7. SAN DIEGO (9-9, previous rank: 11)
Last game: The Chargers went on the road to frigid
Pittsburgh and were sunk in the pivotal third quarter, running just one
offensive play and holding the ball for only 17 seconds. The 35-24 loss
in the divisional round ended their five-game winning streak and their
season.
Team MVP: QB Philip Rivers
8. INDIANAPOLIS (12-5, previous rank: 3)
Last game: The Colts propensity to lose to San Diego held
firm as they allowed San Diego back Darren Sproles to run all over them
to the tune of 328 total yards and the winning TD in overtime in a
23-17 wildcard loss, the final game of Tony Dungy's career.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Indy was
dead last in rushing in 2008 (3.44 YPA) and was outgained by its opponents on the ground 1,966-1,274 in the regular season.
Team MVP: QB Peyton Manning
9. CAROLINA PANTHERS (12-5, previous rank: 4)
Last game: Playing a postseason game at home, where they
hadn't lost all season, the Panthers were completely undone by Jake
Delhomme's six turnovers in a stunning, blowout loss to the eventual
NFC champion Cardinals. Delhomme had entered the game with the highest
average per attempt (8.55) and third highest passer rating (95.0) in
NFL postseason history.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Delhomme threw a total of three INTS in his last seven regular season games, and then five in the playoff loss to Arizona.
Team MVP: RB DeAngelo Williams
10. ATLANTA (11-6, previous rank: 6)
Last game: Atlanta's surprising and magical season came to an end in a 30-24 NFC wildcard loss at Arizona.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Michael Turner led the league in
rushing attempts (376) and was second in yards (1,699) in 2008, but
picked up just 42 yards on 18 carries in the playoff loss to Arizona.
Team MVP: QB Matt Ryan
11. NEW ENGLAND (11-5, previous rank: 9)
Last game: Needing a win in their season finale, as well as
some help, the Pats did their part, shutting out the Bills 13-0 in
windy Buffalo.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Matt Cassel passed for 425 yards and four TDs with a 98.8 passer rating in the last two minutes of the half.
12. MIAMI (11-6, previous rank: 8)
Last game: After one of the most stunning turnarounds in
NFL history, the Dolphins ran into Baltimore, their most powerful
opponent in weeks, and were rolled 27-9 in an AFC wildcard game.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Prior to beating the 9-7 Jets in
Week 17, Miami's only win over a Quality Team all season was at New
England in Week 3 – a victory which ended New England's record 21-game
regular-season win streak.
Team MVP: QB Chad Pennington
THE TEPID TWENTY
13. MINNESOTA (10-7, previous rank: 12)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Minnesota ranked fifth in rushing (146.1 YPG) but just 25th in passing (184.8 YPG).
14. CHICAGO (9-7, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: In his first 10 games, QB Kyle
Orton threw just four INTs. In his last six games, Orton threw eight
INTs. Passing effectively remained a problem throughout the season – as
it has since the days of Sid Luckman. The Bears averaged just 5.49
Passing Yards Per Attempt (25th).
15. TAMPA BAY (9-7, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: A promising 9-3 season collapsed
in the clutch, as Tampa lost its last four games – including a dismal
defeat to Oakland in the finale – and missed the playoffs. The
Buccaneers were mediocre by almost any measure, from their 9-7 record
to the fact that they ranked between 11th and 20th in almost all of our
Quality Stats. The lone exception was Defensive Passer Rating, a
traditional Tampa strength, in which the Bucs ranked No. 6.
16. NEW ORLEANS (8-8, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Two years removed from the NFC
championship game, the closest the Saints got to the playoffs in 2008
was having reserve defensive back Usama Young star in the league's
official "Super Ad." The lack of balance was a problem: the Saints
averaged 311.1 YPG through the air, but just 99.6 YPG on the ground.
17. HOUSTON (8-8, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Despite missing five games for
the second consecutive year, QB Matt Schaub still passed for over 3,000
yards for the first time in his career and averaged a healthy 8.0 YPA.
The trouble for Texans remain on defense, as
the Cold, Hard Football Facts discussed in an interview with Houston Chronicle blogger "Texans Chick" back in January.
18. DALLAS (9-7, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Terrell Owens' 69 catches for
1,052 yards added up to his worst statistical season since 1999, when
he caught 60 passes for 754 yards for the 49ers. The Cowboys continue
to show the greatest disparity in NFL history between the hype they
generate in the media and the results they actually produce on the
field.
19. WASHINGTON (8-8, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Redskins allowed just 288.8 YPG and 18.5 PPG, but gained only 320.0 YPG and scored 16.6 PPG.
20. SAN FRANCISCO (7-9, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: If they want to take the next
step in 2009, the 49ers need to take better care of the ball. They
finished 2008 with a turnover ratio of -17, tied for last in the league
with Denver.
21. N.Y. JETS (9-7, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: League INT leader (22) Brett
Favre didn't discriminate when he threw his picks. He tossed nine when
the Jets led and nine when they trailed (four when they were tied). He
also threw 13 picks at home and nine on the road, and 12 in the first
half vs. 10 in the second half.
22. BUFFALO (7-9, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: During the four-game losing
streak at midseason that proved to be Buffalo's undoing, QB Trent
Edwards threw eight INTs against just three TDs and failed to post a
passer rating higher than 79.3
23. DENVER (8-8, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Can somebody in Denver get a
clue? The Broncos ranked second in total offense (395.8 YPG) but just
16th in scoring offense (23.1 PPG), which helps explain they went out
and hired former New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who
oversaw the top-scoring offense in league history in 2007. But Denver
should have been more concerned with the other side of the ball, where
it ranked 29th in total defense (374.6 YPG) and 30th in scoring defense
(28.0 PPG).
24. GREEN BAY (6-10, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The demise of the Packers had
little to do with Favre replacement Aaron Rodgers, who spearheaded the
league's fifth-ranked scoring offense (26.2 PPG) with 4,038 yards
passing, 28 TDs, 7.5 YPA and a passer rating of 93.8 while hooking up
two 1,000-yard receivers in Greg Jennings (1,292 yards, 9 TD) and
Donald Driver (1,012, 5 TD). The problem, instead, was a defense that
surrendered 380 points (22nd) – a massive drop for a unit that
surrendered just 291 points in the 13-3 season of 2007 (6th).
25. OAKLAND (5-11, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: New coach Tom Cable, Oakland's
fifth in seven years, proclaimed his team to be playoff worthy at his
introductory press conference, a tall order given that they have lost
at least 11 games for the past six years with a record of 24-72 (.250)
over that period. It's arguably the worst six-year stretch by any team
in NFL history.
26. CINCINNATI (4-11-1, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Cincy was a respectable 4-3-1 in
the second half of the season, including victories in its last three
games. The wins didn't keep the Bengals from their worst record since
2002, but it did barely keep them out of the AFC North basement thanks
to the pathetic Browns (4-12).
27. JACKSONVILLE (5-11, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Jaguars led the league in
failed expectations in 2008. They were 11-5 in 2007, beat up the
Steelers twice, and battled toe-to-toe with the undefeated Patriots in
the divisional playoffs, leading to Super Bowl expectations this
season. Instead, the Jags finished dead last in the AFC South, ranked
24th in point differential (-65) and 25th in turnover ratio (-7).
28. SEATTLE (4-12, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Perhaps thanks to the yearlong
injury problems of QB Matt Hasselbeck and the lack of a consistent
running game (110.5 YPG), Seattle sent coach Mike Holmgren off into the
sunset with the worst scoring offense (18.4 PPG, 25th overall) of his
career. Injuries to Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and a poor
offensive line (25th in our
Offensive Hog Index) were big reasons why.
29. CLEVELAND (4-12, previous rank: 31)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Don't expect the Browns to live
up (or down) to expectations. In 2007, picked by many to finish last in
the AFC North, they won 10 games and barely missed the playoffs. In
2008, picked by many to earn a postseason berth, they won four games,
lost eight of their last nine including their final six, and failed to
score a TD on offense over that stretch.
30. KANSAS CITY (2-14 previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Outgoing coach Herm Edwards
oversaw one of the most gruesome destructions of an organization in
modern NFL history. The team he inherited from Dick Vermeil went 10-6
in 2005 and ranked 6th in scoring offense and first in total offense.
The team he leaves behind went 2-14 in 2008 and ranked 26th in scoring
offense and 24thin total offense. Edwards' reputation as a defensive
specialist also suffered: they 2008 Chiefs ranked 29th in scoring
defense and 31st in total defense. Other than that, he did a nice job.
31. ST. LOUIS (2-14, previous rank: 29)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Steven Jackson missed four games
and left a fifth with an injury but still provided some life for the
lousy Rams, rushing for 1,042 yards and seven TDs. Otherwise, the Rams
were a disaster. In fact, statistically speaking, they were the worst
team in the league. St. Louis ranked between 27th and 32nd in all but
one of our Quality Stats (they were 21st in Defensive Hog Index).
Including in the statistical disaster was a No. 32 ranking in our
Relativity Index. In other words, relative to the quality of the opponents they played, the Rams were the worst team in football.
32. DETROIT (0-16, previous rank: same)
Cold, Hard Football Facts: What more do we need to tell
you, dear, faithful readers of CHFF, than 0-16. The most disturbing
fact for Lions fans was the unit that surrendered a record 110.8
Defensive Passer Rating – the worst pass defense in NFL history.
