By Cold, Hard Football Facts contributor Bob McCullough
New England won Super Bowl XXXIX with a rotating series of inexperienced, undrafted and otherwise marginal cornerbacks. Yet NFL teams continue to pony up big bucks for shutdown corners. This contradiction raises an obvious question: are shutdown corners worth the money? More specifically, is Ty Law worth the money paid to shutdown corners?
What the Market Says
The gold standard for so-called “shutdown” corners was set last year by Denver, which gave former Redskins free agent Champ Bailey a seven-year, $63-million contract that included an $18-million signing bonus. The deal allowed Bailey to pass Law, who made $7.3 million in 2004, as the highest-paid corner in the NFL. Charles Woodson took the market a tad higher in February by signing a one-year, $10.5-million tender offer with Oakland in the hopes of forcing a trade to a team that would award him with a long-term deal.
Law is the marquee catch in what is considered a strong free agent cornerback class and he entered this year’s free-agent signing period looking for a deal similar to Bailey’s and Woodson’s. The rumor mill, including sources such as ESPN’s John Clayton, churned out a figure of $15 million as a possible signing bonus.
What the Cold, Hard Football Facts Say
The Bailey signing is a perfect example of how dicey things get when it comes to estimating the impact of a shutdown corner. In 2004, Bailey made 81 tackles and had three interceptions – definitely solid numbers – but his overall effect on Denver’s defensive ranking was negligible.
Here’s how Denver’s defense performed in 2003 B.C. (Before Champ) and in 2004, with Champ.
• In 2003, Denver ranked 9th in scoring defense (18.8 PPG)
• In 2004, Denver ranked 9th in scoring defense (19.0 PPG)
• In 2003, Denver ranked 4th in total defense (277.1 YPG).
• In 2004, Denver ranked 4th in total defense (278.7 YPG).
• In 2003, Denver ranked 32nd (last) with 9 INTs.
• In 2004, Denver ranked 27th with 12 INTs.
• In 2003, Denver ranked 12th in pass defense (176.8 YPG)
• In 2004, Denver ranked 6th in pass defense (184.2 YPG)
There was some obvious improvements in the interception and pass-defense categories. But even with Bailey, the Broncos still intercepted only 12 passes in 2004 (sixth worse in the league), a number that helped contribute to a -9 number in the crucial turnover category. Only seven teams were worse in turnover differential last year.
His impact was equally transparent in the postseason. The Broncos may have held Marvin Harrison to four catches for 50 yards in their wildcard game loss in Indianapolis, but that didn’t seem to matter much when Peyton Manning was able to torch the rest of the Denver secondary for almost 500 yards passing and three touchdowns. This evidence seems to refute the theory that a “shutdown corner” automatically boosts the overall performance of a secondary by forcing a QB to rely on his secondary receivers.
Mixed Baggage
So is Law worth a Bailey-esque deal? The Cold, Hard Football Facts say no.
The lower boundary for Law’s negotiations was set by Baltimore when the Ravens signed Samari Rolle to a six-year, $30 million deal that included an $11 million signing bonus. Rolle, who is coming off knee surgery and a nasty domestic abuse arrest, had just one pick and 28 tackles last year for a defense that ranked 27th in total defense and 26th in pass defense. He made a base salary of $5.5 million and would have carried a cap number of $9.8 million into the 2005 season. In other words, the writing on the wall as early as last Thanksgiving indicated that Rolle was a potential cap casualty.
Law entered 2004 in the final year of a seven-year, $51 million contract that carried a $12.5 million cap number this year. His career track record is better than Rolle’s – more Pro Bowls, more picks and more rings. But in a “what have you done for me lately” business, the fact that Law’s tackle and interception numbers for last year were identical to Rolle’s (28 tackles, 1 INT) doesn’t bode well for his new deal. It also doesn’t help that Law’s old club did not miss a beat without him, won the Super Bowl and, along the way, stifled one of the most feared passing attacks in NFL history in a 20-3 playoff victory over Indy.
Like Rolle, Law comes with serious health baggage. He broke his foot against the Steelers in the seventh game of the season. And he has some off-field issues as well after torching Bill Belichick in the media last year during a spirited effort to get the Patriots to renegotiate his deal. Law has been making the rounds on the media damage-control circuit to shore up his reputation as a possible malcontent, but any interested GM has to wonder if Law will call him a liar in the media a few years from now if the renegotiation issue surfaces.
The Bottom Line
Pick a halfway point between the Bailey deal and the Rolle signing, and that’s where Law should land financially. Specifically, that means a deal for five or six years, with the overall money total falling between $35 and $50 million, and a $12-15 million signing bonus to sweeten the pot. Before his foot injury, Law had a solid shot at beating Bailey and Woodson in the money standings, but his foot injury will probably cost him his chance to regain his status as the best-paid corner in football.
Can he justify the money? It’s possible, but hard to imagine. For a team like Kansas City – which reportedly backed away from signing Rolle because of health concerns – Law might be the pivot point to rebuild a wretched defense that leaked like a sieve. And old friend and new Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel could look to Law to help establish a veteran defensive presence and set the tone in the Browns locker room.
But it’s more likely that whoever signs Law might end up looking back after the ’05 season and realize that they were asking a lot of a 31-year old corner if they expected him to come off of foot surgery, continue to play at a Pro Bowl level and take their defense to the promised land in the process.
A smart general manager, meanwhile, will look the performance of two defenses last year – Denver’s and New England’s – and question the potential benefit and value of a “shutdown corner.” After all, one team barely improved after signing a big-name corner to a top-dollar deal. The other team continued to hum like a well-oiled machine after losing one of the league’s biggest names and most highly paid corners.
