This week’s Monday morning hangover update was written while shaking off the effects of way too much Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale (probably the greatest beer ever made in America, though this year’s version pales in comparison to past years) and several bottles of cheap Portuguese wine. Don’t ask.
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Indy and Chicago continue to climb up the ladders of NFL history: Indy in its effort to become the most dominant regular-season team of the Super Bowl era and Chicago as the stingiest defense of the same period. We introduced you, the loyal pigskin public, to both lists last week (Indy here and Chicago here).
Well, both clubs look even better today – Indy after its 35-3 thrashing of Tennessee, a team that just two years ago went toe-to-toe with the Colts in the battle for AFC South supremacy, and Chicago after another shutdown defensive performance in a 19-7 victory over Green Bay.
In the list of most dominant teams, we looked at those clubs that posted a 2-to-1 scoring margin in the regular season. Last week, the Colts chimed it at No. 8 on the list. Today, after dismantling the Titans, they stand as the fifth-most dominant team in modern NFL history, based upon average point differential.
|
Team |
Record |
PF-PA |
Difference |
Result |
|
1968 Balt. Colts |
13-1 |
28.7-10.3 |
18.4 |
Lost SB III |
|
1999 Rams |
13-3 |
33.5-15.1 |
18.4 |
Won SB XXXIV |
|
1969 Vikings |
12-2 |
27.1-9.5 |
17.6 |
Lost SB IV |
|
1968 Cowboys |
12-2 |
30.8-13.3 |
17.5 |
Lost div. round |
|
2005 Colts |
12-0 |
30.5-13.5 |
17.0 |
TBD |
The 2005 Bears boasted the 13th-stingiest defense in modern history entering this weekend. Today, they’re up to No. 12. Far more impressively, the 2005 Bears possess the second-toughest scoring defense since the league opened up the offensive game – with dramatic effect – following the 1977 season. Note that three of the top 11 defenses played in 1977, which was the height of what we call the NFL’s “Dead Ball Era.”
|
Team |
Games |
Pts. Allowed |
PPG |
Record |
Results |
|
1977 Falcons |
14 |
129 |
9.21 |
7-7 |
Missed playoffs |
|
1969 Vikings |
14 |
133 |
9.50 |
12-2 |
Lost SB IV |
|
1975 Rams |
14 |
135 |
9.64 |
12-2 |
Lost NFC title game |
|
1976 Steelers |
14 |
138 |
9.86 |
10-4 |
Lost AFC title game |
|
1971 Vikings |
14 |
139 |
9.93 |
11-3 |
Lost div. playoff |
|
1971 Colts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1970 Vikings |
14 |
143 |
10.21 |
12-2 |
Lost div. playoff |
|
1968 Colts |
14 |
144 |
10.29 |
13-1 |
Lost SB III |
|
2000 Ravens |
16 |
165 |
10.31 |
12-4 |
Won SB XXXV |
|
1977 Rams |
14 |
146 |
10.43 |
10-4 |
Lost div. playoff |
|
1977 Broncos |
14 |
148 |
10.57 |
12-2 |
Lost SB XII |
|
2005 Bears |
12 |
127 |
10.58 |
9-3 |
TBD |
***
Hang on to your nuggets, because the Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Wins Quotient is back with a vengeance … and proving once again why it’s the single most accurate indicator ever created in the history of NFL analysis.
As of today, the Quality Wins Quotient is 138-64 (.683) picking every single NFL game since we introduced it before the start of the 2004 postseason – and this includes the midseason QWQ doldrums which we anticipated and warned against early in the season. (We post our NFL picks, which we base solely upon each team's record against quality opponents, each Sunday. Yesterday's picks and Week 12 results can be seen here.)
As loyal fans of the Cold, Hard Football Facts (Hi, Cousin Daisy!) know, the QWQ becomes more effective as we get later into the season. It’s 25-6 (.806) over the last two weeks, 35-12 (.745) since Week 11 and, of course, it went 10-1 (.909) in the 2004 postseason.
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Did we hear that Boston College is playing Boise State in the Empty Seat Computers Bowl on Dec. 28?
Oh, sorry. It’s the MPC Computers Bowl in Boise, Idaho.
Same thing.
***
The average late-December temperature in Boise is 29 degrees.
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And, just think, Boston College was one smart coach’s decision away from playing Virginia Tech this past Saturday in the ACC title game. The winner would have faced Penn State in the Orange Bowl in Miami on January 3. The loser would have faced Louisville in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville on January 2.
On Nov. 5, in a game against North Carolina, Boston College head coach Tom O'Brien stuck with ineffective starting quarterback Quinton Porter until late in the game, despite the fact that he had routinely been outplayed during the season by backup Jeff Ryan. Boston College lost, 16-14. The decision to stick with Porter potentially cost the university a shot at the conference title, a big-time bowl game and millions of dollars.
***
The average early-January temperature in Miami is 67 degrees. In Jacksonville, it’s 52.5.
***
As incredulous as the “pundits” may be, the 2005 Bears defense IS stacking up to be more dominant than the famous 1985 Bears defense. Many people and pigskin “pundits” refuse to accept these Cold, Hard Football Facts – Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe, a “pundit” we love who, our moles tell us, routinely checks out the Cold, Hard Football Facts, weakly attempted to debunk the comparison Sunday on ESPN’s “The Sports Reporters.”
Well, sorry, folks. You can’t deny the Cold, Hard Football Facts. We know. We know. You remember that the 1985 Bears were just awesome!!! Don’t you? Nobody could move the ball on that defense!!!
But the Cold, Hard Football Facts show rather clearly that the current incarnation of the Monsters of the Midway is better than its more-famous predecessor in every major defensive category except for rush defense.
|
Category |
1985 Bears |
2005 Bears |
|
Scoring defense (rank) |
12.4 (1) |
10.6 (1) |
|
Total defense (rank) |
288.6 (1) |
262.8 (1) |
|
Rush defense (rank) |
82.4 (1) |
93.2 (7) |
|
Pass defense (rank) |
206.2 (6) |
169.6 (2) |
The 2005 Bears have given up more than 20 points just once – 24 to Cincinnati in Week Three. The 1985 Bears gave up 24 to Minnesota, 28 to Tampa Bay and 38 to Miami. Of course, the 1985 Bears did record two regular-season shutouts (and two more in the playoffs) and held seven of 16 opponents below 10 points. The 2005 Bears have recorded no shutouts but have held seven of 12 opponents below 10 points.
One thing is certain: The 1985 Bears were a much better team. In addition to a dominant defense, the 1985 Bears boasted one of the league's better offenses, one that ranked second in the league with 28.5 PPG. The 2005 Bears score just 16.7 PPG.
As we so often see, memory is typically hazy and further clouded by nostalgia. The Cold, Hard Football Facts are always crystal clear and allow us to see much better. They show in no uncertain terms that the 2005 Bears defense is tougher than the 1985 Bears defense.
***
Not every defense is as blessed as the one in Chicago. But there’s nothing like a little AFC East competition to make your defense feel a bit better about itself. Case in point: the New England Patriots.
- In nine games against non-divisional opponents, the Patriots have surrendered 27.4 PPG.
- In three games against divisional opponents, the Patriots have surrendered 11.7 PPG.
No one has done more than we have to highlight the historic implosion that has been the New England defense this season. (We discussed this last week here on the site and on “The Drive” on ESPN Radio Boston Friday night.)
But, as we pointed out earlier this year, New England’s soft second-half schedule would probably put the defense in the middle of the NFL pack by the end of the season. We’re starting to see the New England defense climb ever so slowly in the league-wide rankings.
The Patriots surrendered 27.5 PPG in their first eight games. They have surrendered just 15.5 PPG in their last four games. Of course, three of their last four games have included offensively woeful (or woefully offensive) AFC East opponents.
The Patriots now rank 29th in total D and 25th in scoring defense – and still have three games remaining against AFC East opponents. It’s not exactly a good defense. But by the end of the year, its numbers will look much better than they did early in the season.
It's further proof that quality of competition means everything in the NFL … that’s the basic lesson provided by the Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Wins Quotient.
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The forgotten story, amid the “Tom Brady is SI’s Sportsman of the Year” hype, is that the Patriots are scoring just 21.6 PPG – their worst offensive showing since the anemic Drew Bledsoe-led offense of 2000 (17.2 PPG).
Granted, New England has played several games this season, including the clash with Indy, with only four of its regular offensive starters, but even with Corey Dillon, David Givens and Kevin Faulk back in the lineup yesterday, the Patriots managed just one touchdown and three field goals against a dreadful N.Y. Jets team.
***
The Jets' offense is on pace to score 191 points (11.9 PPG) this season. We thought this would make it one of the most feeble offenses in modern history, and necessitate inclusion in our “chase for history” lists with Indy and Chicago.
But it does not. In fact, the 2005 Jets don’t even crack the Top 20 of the worst offenses to step on the field in recent years. In the modern NFL era (which we’ve been defining for these exercises as the start of the Super Bowl era in 1966), a full 20 teams have had offenses more insipid than New York’s.
Most recently, it was two AFC Central rivals, the 2000 Bengals (11.6 PPG) and 2000 Browns (10.1 PPG). Interestingly, the 2000 Bengals and Browns shared a division with two of the most dominant defenses of modern times: the 2000 Ravens (10.31 PPG), the best NFL defense since 1978, and the 2000 Titans, a forgotten defense that gave up just 11.9 PPG. (Both teams can be seen on last week's list of the stingiest defenses.)
Clearly, both defenses benefited from playing four games against some of the worst offenses of modern times in Cincinnati and Cleveland; conversely, the Bengals and Browns probably would have looked better in a division without two such powerful defensive teams.
***
Everyone’s agog over Minnesota after it ripped off its fifth straight win Sunday, 21-16, over Detroit, to up its record to 7-5. After a 2-5 start marred by off-field controversy, the Vikings stand on the cusp of the playoffs, tied with Atlanta and Dallas at 7-5 for the final NFC postseason spot.
The “pundits” will attempt to find various bullshit reasons for Minnesota’s resurgence. Maybe it will be praise for coach Mike Tice or credit for an offense finding its rhythm. ESPN Monday morning even went so far as to say that quarterback Brad Johnson, who replaced an injured Daunte Culpepper five weeks ago and has not lost since, deserves some MVP consideration. Tice’s name has even been tossed (far too prematurely) into the ring of candidates for Coach of the Year consideration.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts are not so impressed.
In fact, Minnesota’s “rise” is easily understood when we look at the alpha and omega of NFL analysis, the one indicator that can explain virtually any trend in history: the Quality Wins Quotient. The quotient tells us that teams on long win streaks can usually thank an easy schedule.
Well, the Vikings are in the midst of one of the easiest stretches on their or any other team’s schedule this season. Four of their five wins came against Detroit (twice), Green Bay and Cleveland. Their opponents in these four games (including Detroit twice) are a combined 14-34 (.292).
The Vikings do have one quality win during this period, a 24-21 victory at home over the Giants. But that was the game, you might remember, that the Vikings became the first team in NFL history to return a punt, kickoff and interception for a touchdown.
Bottom line: Minnesota’s five-game win streak is a case of a mediocre team overcoming a dreadfully easy schedule – with a little bit of well-timed luck.
***
A theory started making the rounds in the Boston area that the Patriots are attempting some sort of “rope-a-dope” in the regular season. In other words, they’re fully aware that they’ll win the AFC East, so they’re playing vanilla football before unleashing the full breadth of their offensive and defensive repertoires upon opponents in the postseason.
It’s basically complete bullshit. However, there is one thing that can save the Patriots in the postseason: a sudden change in their ability to force turnovers.
As fans of the Cold, Hard Football Facts know, turnovers are the second most important stat in football, behind only final score. Teams that commit turnovers lose. Teams that force turnovers win.
So, with that said, it’s more than a little amazing that the Patriots are 7-5 and can essentially clinch a division title next week when you consider that they’re mired among the worst in the league in turnover differential. In fact, the Patriots are -9 in turnover margin. Only six teams are worse:
- 2-10 Jets (-10)
- 2-10 49ers (-10)
- 4-8 Baltimore (-11)
- 5-7 St. Louis (-11)
- 2-10 Green Bay (-13)
- 3-9 New Orleans (-17)
The Patriots are tied for dead last in the NFL with just 11 takeaways. They’re tied with the worst team in football, 1-11 Houston.
The Patriots will in all likelihood end up in the playoffs. They’ll get one home game and be forced to go on the road for a second. With a little luck and a pair of divisional round upsets, they could get the AFC title game back in Foxboro. If they’re able to find their turnover mojo – which has guided them in the postseason in all three Super Bowl-winning seasons – suddenly the rope-a-dope theory might not look so far-fetched.
Turnovers mean everything in the NFL. And with a few well-timed turnovers in the postseason, it’s not unreasonable to think that the Patriots could (COULD) make a surprising Super Bowl run. After all, it is already surprising – in fact, it’s virtually unheard of – that the Patriots will probably make the postseason despite being among the worst in the league in turnover margin.
***
For years, Peyton Manning rumpswabs (not to mention virtually every single “pundit” in the national media) ignored his postseason commercials for Chokea Cola and blamed Indy’s playoff ills on its defense. Conversely, they said, the only reason Tom Brady won Super Bowls is because of a superior New England defense.
Well, the Patriots, in their three Super Bowl-winning seasons, surrendered 17.0 PPG (2001), 14.9 PPG (2003) and 16.2 PPG (2004). The Colts' defense this year surrenders 13.5 PPG, making it far more impressive than any of New England’s Super Bowl-winning defenses.
So, if the Colts do win the Super Bowl (still a risky proposition based on the quarterback’s and the offense’s history of imploding in the playoffs), will Colts fans credit their vastly superior defense, or will they give all due praise to the Allah of the Audible, Peyton Manning?
You know the answer. To these folks, Manning gets credit for everything that goes well and the rest of the team gets blamed for everything that goes wrong, even when the quarterback is clearly at fault. He is the Teflon Don of the gridiron. But – one way or the other – his legacy will be secured sometime in the next two months.
***
Conference finalists Atlanta, New England, Pittsburgh and Philly were a combined 54-10 (.844) overall last season, and 17-4 (.810) against quality opponents.
The same four teams this year are 26-21 (.553) overall and 7-18 (.280) against quality opponents.
***
Four NFL teams have faced eight quality opponents so far this season: N.Y. Jets, Washington, Green Bay and Detroit. Philly faces its eighth quality opponent, Seattle, tonight. Not so coincidentally, this list includes five of the worst and/or most disappointing teams in football this season.
It’s one of the irrefutable laws of the Quality Wins Quotient: tough schedule almost always means bad record; easy schedule almost always means good record.
Six teams, meanwhile, have faced seven quality opponents so far this season: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Oakland and New Orleans. With the exception of Denver, this list also includes some of the worst or most disappointing teams in football this season.
Conversely, just three teams have had the luxury of facing just four quality opponents this year: Indy, Chicago and Kansas City. Not so coincidentally, this list includes the dominant team in each conference.
If you walk away from this piece today with only one lesson, let it be this: The Quality Wins Quotient is the single most indispensable statistic in all of football analysis. It renders virtually every other statistical consideration all but irrelevant.
