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The big issue of our time
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 17, 2007
Phrase it any way you want, but one big question hangs over the 2006 conference title games and over football here in the 21st century:
Can Peyton Manning win the big game? Is he, finally, a gut-check game winner, or a Sunshine Superman? Or, to put this same question in its crudest form (and therefore the form most likely to be used by the brutally honest Cold, Hard Football Facts): “Is Manning a ch-ch-ch-ch-choker?”
Well, is he … punk?
The question lingers over Planet Pigskin like a rancid fog of bias, opinion and prejudice.
We’ve attempted to find our way through this fog many times, earning both admiration and enmity along the way. In fact, you’ll hear us on WIBC in Indianapolis tonight around 10:40 p.m. (ET), discussing the topic with sports-talk host Kevin Lee.
We won’t purport to answer the question here. What we can do, however, is arm you with the information you need to answer the question yourself.
And what this information tells us, and will tell you, is this:
ONE – There has been an obvious and irrefutable decline in Manning’s performances in the playoffs, relative to his performances in the regular season.
TWO – This decline is more likely to manifest itself on the road. Manning and the Colts play at home Sunday.
THREE – Even Manning’s subpar postseason numbers are misleading. Consider this: Of the 16 TD passes Manning has thrown in 11 playoff contests, eight of them – a full half – came in just two games against Denver.
Manning and the Colts have played four postseason games since they last met Denver in the 2004 wild-card round.
In those four games, he’s tossed two TD passes and has been picked off six times. To put that in historic perspective, Manning has never gone four consecutive games in his regular-season career throwing fewer than 3 TD passes.
But he’s done it in the playoffs, here at the height of his career, in his last four postseason games. Two were played on the road. Two were played at home.
Let's review this case study in pigskin bipolarity that is Peyton Manning.
The regular season vs. postseason
Manning rarely has ever stumbled in the regular season. He routinely stumbles in the postseason. Manning's regular-season numbers are mesmerizing. Manning's postseason numbers are mediocre.
- Manning has had 2 sub-40 passer ratings in 144 regular-season games. Manning has had 3 sub-40 passer ratings in 11 postseason games.
- Manning has led the Indy offense to an average of 26.1 points per game in the regular season. Manning has led the Indy offense to an average of 21.3 points per game in the postseason.
- Manning has posted a 94.4 passer rating in the regular season. Manning has posted an 83.7 passer rating in the postseason.
The big-game/bad-game syndrome
Call it what you like – bad luck, tough competition, choke – but its obvious that Manning suffers his worst performances in the postseason.
Here’s a look at the five worst games of his career (based upon passer rating). Three have come in the playoffs. It’s remarkable considering that he has played 144 regular-season games and just 11 postseason games.
MANNING’S FIVE WORST GAMES (postseasons in italics)
|
Rating |
Opponent |
Season |
Result |
|
31.2 |
at N.Y. Jets |
2002 postseason |
41-0 loss |
|
35.0 |
at Miami |
2001 regular season |
41-6 loss |
|
35.5 |
at New England |
2003 postseason |
24-14 loss |
|
39.3* |
at N.Y. Jets |
1998 regular season* |
44-6 loss |
|
39.6 |
at Baltimore |
2006 postseason |
15-6 win |
* third game of Manning's pro career
You will notice that all five of those games were played on the road. Still, Manning has played a lot of games on the road in his career ... a full 72, to be exact. There were plenty of opportunities for him to play poorly on the road in the regular season. But he's more likely to play poorly on the road in the postseason.
In fact, he's more likely to play poorly in the playoffs, period.
Consider this: Manning has led Indy to the playoffs seven times. In five of those seven seasons, he played his single worst statistical game of the year (based upon passer rating) in the playoffs. Here's a look at Manning's worst statistical game in each of his playoff seasons. As sure as the sun rises in the east, Manning can be counted on to reserve his very worst game of the season for the playoffs.
MANNING’S WORST GAME, year-by-year (postseasons in italics)
|
Playoff Year |
Worst Game |
Rating |
Reg. Season/Postseason |
|
1999 |
Tennessee |
60.9 |
Postseason |
|
2000 |
at New England |
58.7 |
Regular season |
|
2002 |
at N.Y Jets |
31.2 |
Postseason |
|
2003 |
at New England |
35.5 |
Postseason |
|
2004 |
at New England |
69.3 |
Postseason |
|
2005 |
Jacksonville |
44.0 |
Regular season |
|
2006 |
at Baltimore |
39.6 |
Postseason |
Manning vs. Brady
Some people believe the Manning-vs.-Brady debate is old.
We think it’s only in its infancy.
Just like people continue to debate Russell vs. Chamberlain, Williams vs. DiMaggio or Montana vs. Marino, the Manning-vs.-Brady debate is likely to continue long after their careers have ended. These are the two defining figures of the early 21st century in the nation’s most popular sport.
It deserves the attention it continues to get. It also gives us some perspective by which to measure Manning's postseason play.
Some will argue that Manning’s numbers decline because he’s facing tougher competition in the playoffs. Well, no shit, Dick Tracy.
Sure, the competition’s been tough. But that’s the point. Postseason football is tough for every performer. The great ones are supposed to play better. Manning does not play better in the postseason … or at least he hasn’t … yet.
Here’s how Manning and Brady stack up in the regular season and in the postseason. Because of the wide discrepancy in the number of regular-season games vs. postseason games, it’s obviously not fair to look at total numbers. So we’ve looked at percentages and averages, which will help give us a more accurate apples-to-apples comparison.
Manning’s performance declines in the postseason in almost every single category, sometimes quite drastically. Brady’s performance is fairly consistent and, in several areas, his numbers are actually better in the postseason.
PEYTON MANNING (regular season vs. postseason)
|
Regular Season |
Category |
Postseason |
|
144 |
Games |
11 |
|
64.0 |
Completion Percentage |
61.0 |
|
5.62 |
TD Percentage |
5.52 |
|
2.84 |
INT Percentage |
3.33 |
|
1.98:1 |
TD:INT Ratio |
1.23:1 |
|
261.0 |
Passing Yards Per Game |
263.5 |
|
7.69 |
Yards Per Pass Attempt |
7.43 |
|
94.4 |
Passer Rating |
83.7 |
|
26.1 |
Points Per Game |
21.3 |
|
92-52 (.639) |
Record |
5-6 (.455) |
Many of Manning's averages look relatively decent. But they belie the fact that Manning's play has been wildly inconsistent. He's posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating and a near-perfect 145.7 rating in his two games against Denver, the two games that accounted for 8 of his 16 postseason TD passes. He also posted an impressive 138.7 rating in a 2003 playoff win at Kansas City.
Here's what his other games look like: Tennessee in 1999 (60.9 rating); at Miami in 2000 (82.0); at N.Y. Jets in 2002 (31.2); at New England in 2003 (35.5); at New England in 2004 (69.3); Pittsburgh in 2005 (90.9); Kansas City in 2006 (71.9); at Baltimore in 2006 (39.9).
That is wildly inconsistent play.
TOM BRADY (regular season vs. postseason)
|
Regular Season |
Category |
Postseason |
|
94 |
Games |
13 |
|
61.9 |
Completion Percentage |
60.6 |
|
4.80 |
TD Percentage |
4.20 |
|
2.55 |
INT Percentage |
1.77 |
|
1.88:1 |
TD:INT Ratio |
2.37:1 |
|
229.4 |
Passing Yards Per Game |
229.6 |
|
7.04 |
Yards Per Pass Attempt |
6.60 |
|
88.4 |
Passer Rating |
86.8 |
|
24.3 |
Points Per Game |
24.6 |
|
70-24 (.745) |
Record |
12-1 (.923) |
While Manning's postseason performances have been wildly inconsistent, Brady's play has been far more consistent when measured by passer rating: 70.4 vs. Oakland; 84.3 at Pittsburgh; 86.2 vs. St. Louis; 73.3 vs. Tennessee; 76.1 vs. Indy; 100.5 vs. Carolina; 92.2 vs. Indy; 130.5 at Pittsburgh; 110.2 vs. Philly; 116.4 vs. Jacksonville; 74.0 at Denver; 101.6 vs. N.Y. Jets; 57.6 at San Diego.
The competition issue
So Manning's play has clearly declined in the regular season. Brady's play has been relatively even or, in many cases, better. Most notably, Brady has led his team to more points in the playoffs that he has in the regular season. Manning has led his team to fewer points. Perhaps Manning has faced tougher competition in the playoffs.
Well, let's compare the quality of the opposition:
- Manning’s 11 postseason opponents have had a combined record of 127-49 (.722).
- Brady’s 13 postseason opponents have had a combined record of 161-47 (.774).
- Six of Manning’s 11 postseason opponents ranked in the Top 9 in scoring defense.
- Eight of Brady’s 13 postseason opponents ranked in the Top 7 in scoring defense.
- Manning’s 11 postseason opponents surrendered an average of 17.6 PPG in the regular season.
- Brady’s 13 postseason opponents surrendered an average of 18.1 PPG in the regular season.
The big issue of our time
The Cold, Hard Football Facts are compelling. They show in no uncertain terms that Manning does not play as well in the postseason as he does in the regular season. They show that he's had a couple of superstar performances in two playoff games against Denver (and another against Kansas City). They show us more often than not that he reserves his worst performances for the playoffs.
Do they tell us if he's a choker?
We don't know.
But we'll find out Sunday night.
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