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Friday Beer Run: Week 13
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 1, 2006
Well, Week 13 is already off to a bad start, following last night's victory by the Bengals over the Ravens. We called for a Baltimore win with our Thirsty Thursday pick.
We're now 48-36 (.571) this year. It's not bad, considering we pick only the toughest, most competitive games each week. But it's not going to earn us an express pass into the pigskin analysis hall of fame, either. It's a tough pill to swallow, considering the analytical dominance that defined the Cold, Hard Football Facts in our first two seasons.
But we're feeling good with the six-pack of picks in our Friday Beer Run below. If you want the numbers on each and every NFL matchup this week, or want to review last week's games, you can always turn to the Jaws Report:
Now, grab your midday beer and peruse our picks:
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Teams |
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5-6 |
Overall Record |
9-2 |
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2-2 |
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3-1 |
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77.2 (9) |
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60.0 (1) |
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15.82 YPPA (11t) |
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20.96 YPPA (3) |
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18.01 YPPS (28) |
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12.22 YPPS (2) |
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11.67 (5t) |
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14.33 (15t) |
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11.67 (9) |
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8.33 (6t) |
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5.66 (22) |
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6.27 (10) |
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+9 |
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-9 |
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36 |
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36 |
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In their Week 3 meeting, Chicago was four points down at the two-minute warning, but Rex Grossman promptly threw a touchdown pass to pull out a 19-16 victory. Minnesota is now said to be seeking revenge on the quarterback for his trash talking that day.
After three straight road trips to the Northeast, Chicago will resume its winning ways at home.
Prediction: Bears 23, Vikings 17
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Teams |
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5-6 |
Overall Record |
7-4 |
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1-3 |
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0-3 |
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92.6 (28) |
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91.6 (27) |
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13.04 YPPA (32) |
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14.77 YPPA (24) |
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16.81 YPPS (20) |
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16.04 YPPS (16) |
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15.33 (18) |
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13.00 (12t) |
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21.67 (22t) |
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19.67 (20) |
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5.72 (20) |
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7.90 (1) |
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+7 |
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-7 |
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45.5 |
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45.5 |
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In the old NFC West, the 49ers were a perennial power and the Saints were a frequent doormat. Here in 2006, New Orleans is leading the NFC South and thinking playoffs, while San Francisco is trying to return to respectability.
Despite their impressive 7-4 record, the Saints haven’t beaten a quality opponent. They do, however, rank higher than the 49ers in all of the “ Stats That Matter,” most notably in passing YPA. San Francisco averages more than two yards fewer per attempt than the league-leading Saints.
After losing its last two home games, New Orleans should hold serve on Sunday.
Prediction: Saints 28, 49ers 20
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Teams |
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9-2 |
Overall Record |
5-6 |
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2-2 |
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1-5 |
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78.5 (13) |
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88.2 (25t) |
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15.13 YPPA (19) |
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16.57 YPPA (9) |
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11.35 YPPS (1) |
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14.74 YPPS (8) |
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4.67 (1) |
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26.67 (30) |
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8.00 (5) |
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24.33 (29) |
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6.71 (6) |
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5.44 (25) |
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-6 |
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+6 |
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42.5 |
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42.5 |
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The Chargers make their fourth trip east for a game at 10:00 a.m. body-clock time, something that has been difficult for them in the past. Their two losses came at Baltimore and Kansas City, and they had to rally from a 21-point deficit to beat Cincinnati.
While the Bills have a better rank in Bendability (No. 9 vs. No. 19), they lose in every other Quality Stat. The biggest disparity is seen in the Offensive Hog Index, where San Diego continues to be the best and Buffalo is third-worst.
This game may prove tougher than it looks on paper, especially with snow a possibility, but the warm-weather team should ultimately prevail.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Bills 19
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Teams |
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7-4 |
Overall Record |
6-5 |
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2-2 |
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1-4 |
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67.2 (4) |
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81.2 (16) |
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15.50 YPPA (14) |
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15.16 YPPA (17t) |
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13.40 YPPS (4) |
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14.92 YPPS (10) |
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13.00 (12t) |
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10.33 (3) |
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7.33 (3t) |
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14.00 (12) |
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7.15 (3) |
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5.73 (19) |
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-3.5 |
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+3.5 |
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43.5 |
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43.5 |
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It’s really a shame that this matchup hasn’t been getting more coverage. Despite the litany of controversies plaguing both sides all season, one of these teams will likely win the NFC East, making this game pivotal.
The Cowboys rank third or fourth in four of our key categories, and they are no worse than 14th in the other two. The Giants’ only advantage is found in the Offensive Hog Index, where they rate third-best in the league. The records against quality opponents also favor Dallas.
New York easily won the first meeting (36-22), but these rivals now seem to be headed in opposite directions.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 22
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Teams |
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6-5 |
Overall Record |
5-6 |
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3-1 |
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2-2 |
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63.0 (3) |
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77.6 (12) |
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18.52 YPPA (5) |
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15.53 YPPA (13) |
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14.86 YPPS (9) |
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17.85 YPPS (27) |
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6.33 (2) |
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17.67 (20) |
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7.33 (3t) |
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8.33 (6t) |
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5.89 (15) |
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5.42 (26) |
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+1 |
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-1 |
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36.5 |
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36.5 |
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After four straight victories, the Dolphins may be getting back into the playoff hunt. They now host their neighbors from northern Florida, unsure of which team will show up. Jacksonville has been wildly inconsistent all season.
Four of Jacksonville’s five losses have come on the road, but all of the numbers favor the visitors.
Prediction: Jaguars 23, Dolphins 21
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Teams |
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7-4 |
Overall Record |
7-4 |
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1-2 |
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3-3 |
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86.3 (22) |
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77.4 (10t) |
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14.88 YPPA (22) |
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21.43 YPPA (2) |
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14.35 YPPS (7) |
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17.16 YPPS (22) |
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23.33 (25t) |
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12.00 (8t) |
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17.67 (18) |
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17.33 (17) |
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5.36 (27) |
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5.68 (21) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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39.5 |
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39.5 |
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Broncos rookie quarterback Jay Cutler hasn’t taken a snap since the preseason, but he will now make his professional debut in front of a primetime audience. Denver is playing a night game for the third straight week and the sixth time on the season.
Despite back-to-back losses, the Broncos are still the second-toughest team to score points on according to our Bendability Index. The Seahawks, meanwhile, continue to rank in the bottom half of the league for every category except Scoreability, where they are seventh.
All eyes will be on the rookie, who must limit mistakes and rely on his staunch defense to emerge victorious.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Seahawks 16
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