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Friday Beer Run: Week 9
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 3, 2006
By the Cold, Hard Football Facts staff
There's no need for a long preamble. Our picks lately have sucked.
We have been blindly following the numbers of our "Gridiron Grids," but they have been leading us astray. Last week, we went a putrid 2-5. On the season, we are now 33-25 (.569), which isn't exactly setting the world on fire.
Remember, though, we are always making our selections on the toughest, most competitive games. Here in Week 9, you'll notice that none of the spreads are more than a field goal.
As we again stock up on beer and data, we offer this six-pack of analysis.
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Teams |
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4-3 |
Overall Record |
4-3 |
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2-2 |
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1-2 |
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82.0 (19) |
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81.2 (18) |
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13.57 YPPA (27) |
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14.79 YPPA (18) |
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14.91 YPPS (11) |
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15.23 YPPS (14) |
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16.00 (16) |
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15.33 (15) |
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6.58 (8) |
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6.64 (7) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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48 |
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48 |
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The fact that Dick Vermeil isn’t involved in this game makes us a little teary-eyed. Both of these teams were previously led by the legendary softie, and each has a winning record under its new coach.
After starting the season 4-1 and in the top dozen for each of our “ Stats That Matter,” the Rams have lost two straight and only maintained their standing in passing yards per attempt (No. 7). The Chiefs rank exactly one spot behind them in three of the categories, but they have a 2-to-1 advantage in quality wins.
There should be points aplenty in this one, with the home team registering the highest tally.
Prediction: Rams 30, Chiefs 27
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Teams |
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4-3 |
Overall Record |
5-2 |
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1-2 |
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2-1 |
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77.1 (15) |
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61.0 (1) |
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16.73 YPPA (9) |
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21.04 YPPA (4) |
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14.32 YPPS (8) |
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13.26 YPPS (5) |
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22.00 (25) |
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16.67 (18) |
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6.12 (13) |
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5.17 (29) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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40.5 |
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40.5 |
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With Pittsburgh dropping to 2-5, the AFC North could well come down to the head-to-head record of these two foes. Cincinnati swept the season series last year, winning both games by double digits.
Baltimore continues to dominate on D, ranking first in defensive passer rating and fourth in Bendability. The biggest surprise is found in Scoreability, where the explosive Bengals (No. 8) are behind the conservative Ravens (No. 5). For Chad Johnson, that would be “ocho” and cinco.”
Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 18
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Teams |
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4-3 |
Overall Record |
2-5 |
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0-2 |
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1-4 |
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70.5 (6) |
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101.4 (29) |
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13.58 YPPA (26) |
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14.33 YPPA (22) |
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12.51 YPPS (3) |
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16.29 YPPS (21) |
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12.67 (9) |
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9.00 (5) |
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6.23 (11) |
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6.37 (9) |
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-3 |
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+3 |
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42.5 |
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42.5 |
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The Redskins went into their bye week reeling, having lost three straight. They now host a Cowboys team that has been rejuvenated by a convincing 35-14 win over Carolina.
Washington is the only one of these rivals that boasts a quality win, but that happened over a month ago (in overtime against Jacksonville). Dallas holds a huge advantage in Scoreability and defensive passer rating.
This is the second of three consecutive road games for the Cowboys, but they had no problem with Washington in their Week 2 meeting and shouldn’t this time either.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Redskins 17
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Teams |
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5-2 |
Overall Record |
2-5 |
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1-1 |
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1-4 |
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87.0 (22) |
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87.2 (23) |
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22.44 YPPA (3) |
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16.75 YPPA (8) |
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15.14 YPPS (12) |
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20.20 YPPS (31) |
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15.00 (13t) |
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17.67 (19) |
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7.02 (3) |
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4.32 (31) |
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-1 |
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+1 |
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38.5 |
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38.5 |
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What a difference a year makes. In 2005, Tampa Bay started out 5-2 and went on to the playoffs. It was New Orleans that began 2-5 and was at the bottom of the NFC South.
Changes at quarterback may have a little something to do with the reversal of fortunes. Behind veteran Drew Brees, the Saints are third in passing yards per attempt. With rookie Bruce Gradkowski replacing the injured and ineffective Chris Simms, the Bucs rank next-to-last in that category.
Despite the injury status of RB Reggie Bush and WR Joe Horn, who are both questionable, New Orleans should be able to capitalize on its big edge in Scoreability.
Prediction: Saints 20, Buccaneers 16
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Teams |
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5-2 |
Overall Record |
2-5 |
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3-2 |
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1-4 |
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77.5 (16) |
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69.4 (5) |
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26.53 YPPA (1) |
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13.36 YPPA (29) |
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19.79 YPPS (30) |
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15.38 YPPS (16) |
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8.67 (4) |
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21.33 (24) |
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5.45 (23) |
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6.81 (5) |
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+2.5 |
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-2.5 |
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37.5 |
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37.5 |
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This rematch of last year’s AFC championship game had a lot more appeal when the schedules came out. Now, the Steelers are 2-5 and sharing the AFC North basement with Cleveland. In essence, they need to beat the Broncos to salvage their season.
Amazingly, these teams are separated by more than 10 places in every one of the “ Stats That Matter.” The biggest disparity is in Bendability, where Denver ranks first and Pittsburgh is fourth from the bottom. The Broncos also have a 3-to-1 edge in quality wins.
Expect maximum effort from Pittsburgh, but Denver has had greater success against tough competition.
Prediction: Denver 23, Pittsburgh 17
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Teams |
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7-0 |
Overall Record |
6-1 |
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3-0 |
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2-1 |
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90.7 (25) |
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73.2 (7) |
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15.35 YPPA (15) |
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23.90 YPPA (3) |
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13.05 YPPS (4) |
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14.25 YPPS (7) |
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13.33 (11) |
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10.67 (7) |
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7.60 (1) |
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6.17 (12) |
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+2.5 |
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-2.5 |
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47.5 |
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47.5 |
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NBC could not be happier about airing this primetime matchup. Not only is it a showdown between the league’s two best quarterbacks, but their teams own the conference’s two best records. This latest chapter in what has become a celebrated rivalry also features Adam Vinatieri’s return to Foxboro.
After their 31-7 blowout of Minnesota, the Patriots now occupy a spot in the top dozen of each of the Quality Stats. The Colts, meanwhile, have been carried by an offense that ranks first in passing yards per attempt and fourth in Scoreability. Despite having the league’s worst run defense, Indy sits in the middle of the pack for Bendability (No. 15).
It would almost be impossible for this game to live up to the hype, but the fans should get their money’s worth.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 27
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